Retail Stocks: Cheaper But Not Cheap Enough

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I am starting to see a strong trend developing among retail stocks. Revenue growth is slowing and profits are falling — and it looks like many of them have hit the financial engineering wall at last.

For the past couple of years, consumer companies have bought back stock, fired people and closed stores — which let them show profit growth even as revenues declined. But the retail reports so far this earnings season suggest these companies have run out of tricks, and a fairly bleak picture is emerging. Consumers are being very cautious and keeping their wallets closed tightly as the economy continues to struggle.

Two consecutive weak job reports do not bode well for consumer spending. If we don’t start seeing healthy job creation, investors should probably be lightening up on most of these retail stocks — and avoid the temptation to buy them at these levels.

Anyone who thought retail problems were confined to troubled companies like JCPenney (JCP) and Sears (SHLD) may be in for a rude awakening. Even the bigger and best-run retailers are having difficulty growing earnings and revenues right now.

The Walmart (WMT) report tells the story for the average retailer right now. The company reported a 21% decline in earnings and the fourth consecutive quarter of sales declines at Walmart stores open at least a year. The company cited higher taxes, a reduction in government programs like food stamps and tighter credit as primary reasons for the decline. Management expects the headwinds to continue, lowering guidance for next quarter and the full year 2015.

It gets worse when you look at those stores selling things that are not needed every day. Best Buy (BBY) has seen its shares fall by 37% so far this year after fourth-quarter sales were lower than expected. Conns (CONN) said this week that sales of electronics and appliances were weaker than expected and profits would be well below expectations; the stock fell by more than 30% after the announcement. GameStop (GME) has seen t shares fall by more than 25% in 2014 as a result of sluggish holiday sales of computer games.

But — and this is important — in spite of these declines, these retail stocks still are not cheap.

Best Buy is trading at 2.2 times book value and roughly 10% above my calculation of intrinsic value. Conns shares change hands at more than 3 times book value and are roughly 20% above my fair value calculation. GameStop is at 1.9 times book value and right at its intrinsic value. So not only do these companies face difficult conditions, their shares are not cheap.

Retailers, especially those that sell discretionary items, face headwinds that do not appear to be reflected in retail stocks’ prices. It’s not time to try bottom-fishing in this sector just yet.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2014/02/retail-stocks-cheaper-cheap-enough/.

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