AMZN: Don’t Bet on Amazon Just Yet

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All eyes are on Amazon (AMZN) now that it has just slashed the price of its new Fire smartphone from $199 to just 99 cents. Ouch! The Fire phone was clearly a flop, but can Amazon redeem itself with its other growth initiatives, like its $970 million purchase of Twitch.tv? Could this be a Prime buying opportunity? Find out now.

Company Profile

amzn stock amazonWe all know Amazon is the biggest online retailer out there, where you can buy just about anything you can think of and have it delivered to your home in just a few days. From its humble beginnings as an online bookseller, Amazon’s current size and status is a testament to its ability to execute.

However, Amazon’s commitment to its customers doesn’t always trickle down to its investors.

Looking Ahead

The next big catalyst for Amazon is its recent acquisition of Twitch.tv, a video game streaming site which boasts more than 55 million monthly viewers and accounts for nearly 2% of all peak U.S. internet traffic. Buying Twitch.tv is Amazon’s first big foray into the video game community.

However, how Amazon is going to monetize its nearly $1 billion-dollar investment in Twitch.tv is unclear. Further, Amazon is looking shaky in terms of its 2014 earnings. Amazon is expected to post a net loss of 10 cents per share, compared with a profit of 59 cents per share for fiscal 2013 while the industry as a whole is expected to see 11% bottom-line growth.

For the following year, things are looking better, with analysts calling for $1.92 earnings-per-share. However, a lot can happen between now and the end of 2015. So, I wouldn’t bet on AMZN just yet.

Current Ratings

Of the eight fundamental metrics I graded AMZN on, it only excelled in terms of sales growth (B). Meanwhile, Amazon squeaked by with “C-ratings” for operating margin growth, earnings growth, earnings surprises and cash flow. As for earnings momentum, analyst earnings revisions and return on equity, AMZN outright failed. AMZN receives a “D” for its Quantitative Grade (indicating a poor risk-to-return ratio) and a “C” for its Fundamental Grade.

As of this posting, September 15, I consider AMZN a “D-rated sell.”

Louis Navellier is a renowned growth investor. He is the editor of five investing newsletters: Blue Chip GrowthEmerging GrowthUltimate GrowthFamily Trust and Platinum Growth. His most popular service, Blue Chip Growth, has a track record of beating the market 3:1 over the last 14 years. He uses a combination of quantitative and fundamental analysis to identify market-beating stocks. Mr. Navellier has made his proven formula accessible to investors via his free, online stock rating tool, PortfolioGrader.com. Louis Navellier may hold some of the aforementioned securities in one or more of his newsletters.


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