Federal Reserve: The Good News, And the Bad News

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It was another seemingly make-or-break Federal Reserve day, with all eyes on the September policy meeting statement hints as to what’s next for interest rates. Heading in, speculation was high that the Federal Reserve would drop its “considerable time” phrase referring to when short-term interest rates would start after the QE3 bond buying program ended (likely in October).

This was seen as moving up the timing of this rate hike from around September 2015 to June 2015 or maybe even sooner.

The good news is that the Fed kept the language in. And initially, stocks rallied hard, pushing the S&P 500 to new record highs. But then, into the closing bell, stocks wilted as investors realized there was some bad news too.

russell 2000
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It’s notable that despite the push to new highs for large-cap stocks, the small caps in the Russell 2000 continue the sideways crawl they’ve been doing all year. In fact, the index is headed towards a “death cross” as its 50-day moving average threatens to move below its 200-day — something that hasn’t happened in a big way since 2011. You can see this in the chart above as the red and blue lines prepare to intersect.

Back to the Fed.

The policy statement itself, while increasing in word count to a record high as Fed policymakers are forced to add more and more verbiage to explain an increasingly contorted policy stance, was largely unchanged. They noted recent improvements to the labor market, but highlighted ongoing underutilization of resources (i.e. slack in the job market).

Again, the big takeaway was the inclusion of the “considerable time” language.

Now, the bad news.

FOMC
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There were two dissents against the statement from the more hawkish members of the Fed committee. These members believed the statement language on holding rates lower for a considerable time was too lax given signs of excessive confidence in the financial markets, stable inflation, a tightening job market and stable economic growth. That’s a sign that there is growing dissent within the Fed about holding rates lower for longer — a division that will grow as long as the economic data remains strong.

Also, the summary of economic projections (known as the “dot plot”) showed that the median estimate of where the Fed’s policy interest rate will be at the end of 2015 increased from 1.125% in June to 1.375% in September. At the same time, the Fed committee collectively lowered its economic growth forecast.

And finally, the Fed issued a separate statement on its exit strategy as it prepares to end its most accommodative monetary policy stance in history — outlining how it plans on forcing up the cost of money at a time when the monetary base has grown to more than $4 trillion from $800 billion before the recession.

So, what’s the takeaway?

Stocks — or at least the large caps in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, are operating in their own bubble universe at the moment.

But other asset classes continue to prepare for rate hikes from the Fed despite the inclusion of the considerable time language. Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen, in her press conference, said this phrase isn’t indicative of a period of time (earlier this year, she said it represented something like six months) but is a statement that’s dependent on the flow of economic data. As long as the data remains strong, especially anything related to jobs, then the rate hike timing will continue to narrow around the middle of 2015.

The U.S. dollar surged strongly on the day, adding to a run higher that started in July. Long-term interest rates moved higher once again as Treasury bonds weakened. And commodity prices slid lower on the day, with the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) losing another 0.4%.

For now, I continue to recommend investors raise some cash while the more aggressive look for ways to profit from the market’s rate hike preparations. That includes positions like the Direxion 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (TMV), which is up 6.1% for Edge subscribers over the past week.

Anthony Mirhaydari is founder of the Edge and Edge Pro investment advisory newsletters, as well as Mirhaydari Capital Management, a registered investment advisory firm.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2014/09/stocks-bag-small-gains-fed-prepares-tighten/.

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