The better-than-expected September jobs report gave a glimmer of hope to growth investors as the strong number should give a boost to consumer discretionary stocks. Better job growth increases consumer sentiment, which in turn helps people feel better about spending on a few wants, not just needs.

A report from the National Retail Federation released Tuesday says sales in November and December will increase 4.1% to $616.9 billion, beating the prior year’s tally of 3.1%. This also could help provide an impetus for a strong holiday season for retail stocks. The above 4% projected increase if accurate would be the first time holiday sales would eclipse the 4% mark.

Additionally, the NRF reported that Shop.org released its 2014 online holiday sales forecast, expecting sales to grow in November and December to grow 8% to 11% year-over-year compared to the same period in 2013.

The stronger jobs numbers come just in time, as the fourth quarter is historically a strong period for consumer discretionary stocks. One way to evaluate a stock’s or sector’s performance is to measure it’s seasonality — you analyze the average percent returns during a specific month, as well as how often that sector is higher or lower during that month.

Click to Enlarge For example, over the past 16 years, the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index shows strong seasonal returns during the Q4.

• October: Gained 65% of the time for an average increase of 2.6%.
• November: Gained 81% of the time for an average game of 1.7%.
• December: Gained 81% of the time for an average gain of 3%.

Click to Enlarge A number of individual stocks helped drive these seasonal returns, and three consumer discretionary stocks in particular look attractive through this lens.

Starbucks (SBUX) is a powerhouse in October, but its returns ease during the latter part of the quarter. The past 20-year history of Starbucks shows that SBUX stock climbs by a generous 6.6% during the month 75% of the time. The gains are tamer in latter two months of the quarter, finishing higher 65% of the time in November and December by an average of approximately 1%.

Target (TGT) makes the case to be a key driver of positive seasonal returns in October.  When measured over the past 20-years the share price shows positive returns 75% of the time with an average return of 3.5%. The balance of the Q4 is less robust as November is positive 70% of the time with an average return of 3.1% and December moves higher 50% of the time with an average return of 0.4%.

If you are looking for a stock for the back half of the fourth quarter, then Walt Disney (DIS) is a strong candidate. Over the past 10 years, the stock has climbed 70% of the time in November for an average gain of 2.2%, and in December, DIS stock rises 80% of the time reporting an average return of 4.4%.

The combination of improving jobs numbers, potentially better retail sales and a historically strong seasonal tendency for discretionary stocks to rise in the fourth quarter make Starbucks, Target and Disney strong stocks to own during the last quarter of 2014.

As of this writing, David Becker did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.