KSS: Wait to Hear Kohl’s Latest News

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Kohl’s (KSS) stock dropped 400 basis points since it announced that full year earnings would be toward the low end of previous guidance due to slower October sales. Kohl’s 2014 fiscal year ends Feb. 1, and Kohl’s is scheduled to release next quarter’s before the market opens on Nov. 13.

kohls kssUp until the earnings warning, Kohl’s stock was having an okay year up just over 3%, certainly not good but not negative either. Last year saw Kohl’s stock up a remarkable 34%, a nice reward for long-term investors. This year, Kohl’s announced in weak results for the quarter ended Feb. 1 which initially depressed KSS stock price. Kohl’s stock price recovered through March and April and then began a downtrend until a rally in August.

Kohl’s has over 1,100 stores in 49 states is the preferred shopping destination for America’s busy moms. Kohl’s stores have easy to shop layouts, offer moderately priced exclusive and national brand name apparel and shoes, accessories and home related items. After going through a rapid expansion from 2006 to 2011, which increased its store count to well over 1,000, the focus has been on opening new, smaller footprint stores at a much slower pace and focusing on increasing comparable store sales within its current locations.

Should Investors Worry?

Kohl’s announced the lower guidance numbers two days before an investor conference at its headquarters, where it is anticipated that Kohl’s management will announce new growth plans and strategic initiatives. So, any buy or sell decision should be postponed until after additional information is digested by the market as to what the remainder of the year and 2015 may look like.

Some of the sales volatility that Kohl’s is experiencing has more than likely been caused by lower temperatures throughout the country over the summer, which may have spurred shoppers to stock up on fall goods early, but with the fall turning out to be mostly warm and dry, consumers have not flocked to store to bulk up their sweater collections.

Retail sales are volatile, and I think the market overreacted to the news. We will know more as analysts come out with updated information from the investor day. With the drop in price, Kohl’s price to earnings ratio is currently 13.3, with a 2.5% dividend yield and price to earnings growth rate of 1.2. I would not call Kohl’s stock cheap, but it is also not expensive. The 12-month consensus stock price is at $65, even as many analysts have pulled back on their earnings guidance.

Kohl’s still has room to grow with new store footprint opportunities throughout the northeast, a shopping experience that has won the hearts of many women and with off-the-mall locations allows for more convenient and therefore frequent visits.

As of this writing, Kenneth Fick did not hold a position in Kohl’s Stock, although my wife is an avid shopper of its stores. Write him at kfick@piercethefog.com or follow him on his blog at www.piercethefog.com.


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