About this time last year, I told you that if you wanted to make some money in 2014, then you needed to jump into Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) for a ride.
That prediction proved prescient, as the electric-vehicle maker’s stock drove investors to a 49.5% year-to-date gain (through Dec. 26). The move higher in TSLA stock was once again impressive; although not nearly as extraordinary as the 325% gain the stock reveled in last year.
For Tesla shareholders, the ride this year wasn’t nearly as wild as it was in 2013, but there were still plenty of big volatility in the shares, as well as plenty of headline news (sometimes generated by CEO Elon Musk’s Twitter Inc (TWTR) account) that moved TSLA stock in 2014.
Tesla Stock Stat Attack
First, let’s look at the numbers behind TSLA stock this year.
- In 2014 (as of Dec. 26), there were 57 days where TSLA stock moved 3% or more (my threshold in this stock for a notable move). In 2013 there were 74 days of 3% or more moves.
- Of those 57 days, 31 of them were to the upside, while 26 were to the downside. In 2013 there were far more big up days, 42, and just a few more down days, 32.
- This year didn’t have nearly as many huge, one-day moves as there were in the prior year. In 2014, there were only three trading days where the shares moved more than 10%. In 2013 there were 11 trading sessions of double-digit percentage moves.
- The three biggest trading days for TSLA stock occurred early in the year with the largest one-day swing happening on Jan. 14, with Tesla stock surging 15.7%.
- The next biggest move came the following month, as shares spiked 13.9% on Feb. 25. The third biggest move came on May 8, as Tesla stock plunged 11.3% during the session.
For Tesla, the year was filled with much more than just the aforementioned big trading days.
The News
In December, shares fell below the $200 mark (intraday) for the first time since May. The decline in the stock was answered with some big gains during the second half of the month, which lifted TSLA stock back above $222, but the shares remain well off of their Sept. 4 closing high of $286.04.
The December decline converted many former Tesla bulls into Tesla bears, and now even my esteemed colleague has changed his tune on the shares.
One big external event affecting Tesla in 2014 was the unexpected plunge in crude oil prices, a move that caused gasoline prices to tumble to multiyear lows. Hey, who needs an electric car when gas prices are around $2 per gallon? While the current decline in crude and gasoline prices is music to many commuters’ ears, it remains to be seen whether the trend will continue long enough to have any material impact on potential new Tesla buyers.
Yet perhaps the biggest single event, in my opinion, for Tesla this year came on Oct. 1, via the cryptic tweet by Elon Musk that had the whole world buzzing about the “D.”
The “D” turned out to be the Tesla Model S D, an all-wheel drive, beefed-up version of the electric carmaker’s flagship sedan that comes complete with two electric motors that enhance the vehicle’s performance to supercar stats.
The foreshadowing tweet about the D showed that not only is Elon Musk a genius inventor and CEO, he’s also a master marketer and pioneering social media trendsetter. This combination is both hard to beat, and hard for me to bet against.
Bottom Line
Like we’ve seen throughout its relatively short lifespan, in 2014 Tesla was once again the company that the true believers loved, and that the naysayers hated.
The former camp continues to think that Tesla is the ultimate future of automotive transportation, and that its battery technology is going to change the world forever. The latter camp thinks it’s all about hype, momentum players and a cult of personality around the enigmatically brilliant Elon Musk.
While I think there is certainly truth living in both camps, the ultimate truth is that TSLA stock once again delivered for those who were long in 2014.
For my money, until the Tesla wave really begins to wash out, I am going to continue riding the supercharged shares.
As of this writing, Jim Woods was long TSLA.
