Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (VRX) Stock Is Back From the Abyss

Advertisement

Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (NYSE:VRX) is back from the dead. The company that crashed and nearly burned up on a strategy of debt-based acquisitions and dicey sales strategies has been making a quiet comeback in 2017, this time in the garb of a chastened, almost-normal drug company. VRX stock is up 30% in since its March 1 earnings report.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (VRX)

That report showed a decent Q4 profit, demonstrating Valeant can cover its debt service. Analysts expect more good news when the company next reports earnings on Aug. 8, with forecasts of net income of 96 cents per share on revenue of $2.23 billion

While Valeant may be a tarnished name, the brands that make up its product list are what consumers see, and those remain strong.

It may be time for long-term investors to take another look at VRX stock. That seems to be the new analyst consensus.

Compelling Bull Case

I described the company’s bull case in June, noting how recent asset sales take a forced bankruptcy off the table. That bull case includes a competitive drug pipeline.

Other InvestorPlace writers are also coming around to VRX as a long-term prospect. Chris Tyler called it a “great speculative value,” while Anthony Mirhaydari put a number on the speculation on June 26, seeing 30% upside. Since Mirhaydari’s piece came out, the stock is up more than 11%, and opened today at $17.71 per share.

Even with the recent gains, the valuation is still “trash,” as Chris MacDonald wrote at the start of June. We’re talking a market cap of $6.2 billion for a company whose 2016 revenues were closer to $9.7 billion. If the analysts’ estimate of nearly $1 in earnings for June is sustainable over a year, you’re talking about a price-to-earnings ratio of under 5.

This is not to sound an all-clear. The company still had nearly $28.2 billion in debt at the end of March, covering $42.2 billion in assets. Interest expenses on that debt are going to be high, and ongoing. More asset sales are likely, and that will make it harder to sustain earnings.

But since Joseph Papa became CEO in April 2016, the company has had positive cash flow from operations every quarter, and managed positive total cash flow in the most recent quarter, which is when investors started coming back.

A Steady Course

The company is continuing its steady path of asset sales. Just this month it sold off a skin care products unit, Obagi Medical Products, and combined that cash with the proceeds from the sale of Dendreon Pharmaceuticals, makers of a controversial cancer treatment, to pay off another $811 million in debt.

 

Analysts are again focusing on fundamentals. Those still aren’t great, especially in dermatology, but Papa and his team now have at least two years of runway to fix that; underperformance means you can speculate on improvements.

Chris Lau notes that based on current cash flows, Valeant could still have an intrinsic value of $55 per share. The debt is still not covered by cash flow, and Lau puts a real value of $25 per share on the company. That’s 42% upside from VRX stock’s current price.

Bottom Line on VRX stock

Few companies like Valeant have a second act. Even fewer do it under the same name. Usually a name change is necessary before the critics forget what they were angry about.

But as time passes, and memories of its past problems fade, Valeant is becoming a stock worth speculating on again. Understand this: VRX stock will never at $200 a share again, but it could become worth more than the sum of its parts, which would deliver a solid profit to those who bet that way.

Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of the political polemic Saving Trumpistan, Restoring Democracy, available now at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at danablankenhorn@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Dana Blankenhorn has been a financial and technology journalist since 1978. He is the author of Technology’s Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore’s Law, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Tweet him at @danablankenhorn, connect with him on Mastodon or subscribe to his Substack.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/07/valeant-pharmaceuticals-intl-inc-vrx-stock-is-back-from-the-abyss/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC