Automobile sales in the U.S. in 2009 fell to 10.4 million units, the lowest number in more than a quarter century. Expectations for 2010 were as high as 12 million units sold, largely because of pent-up demand for new cars as the U.S. economy recovered.

That was before Toyota Motors (TM) officially recalled almost 9 million cars worldwide. Now, Hyundai has recalled 47,000 cars to fix a problem with the door locks. Honda Motors (HMC) recently recalled 378,000 cars to fix a problem with the air bags, following a July 2009 recall of 440,000 cars for a similar problem.

Ford Motors (F) is not recalling cars, but is offering a “customer satisfaction program” to upgrade the software in the regenerative braking system on its Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan hybrids. Chrysler has also recalled some 24,000 vehicles to fix a nasty problem with the brakes.

The problems with new cars, it seems, are ubiquitous. That is the message that is driven home each day as one recall follows another. Can a car buyer trust any of these guys? Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood testified to Congress yesterday that the department has recalled some 23 million vehicles in the past three years. That’s more than half the automobiles sold in the same period.

That question is the one that every car maker will be forced to answer in 2010. Unless an old car is absolutely falling apart, why should a potential buyer put out good money (and credit) to buy a new car that is likely to be untrustworthy and maybe even unsafe?

Cars on the road today are getting older. The average age is getting close to six years. The average driver in the U.S. travels about 12,000 miles a year. That means there are a lot of cars out there with more than 72,000 miles on the odometer.

Back in the day, when a car approached 100,000 miles travelled it was pretty much time to replace it. That is no longer the case, as automobile quality has risen dramatically. Keeping a car for 200,000 miles or more is not all that uncommon.

And if you own a car that has been well-maintained and that runs like it just came off the showroom floor, there’s no incentive for you to give up a car that’s paid for in exchange for more debt and a better-than-50% chance that you’ll get a lemon.

If car sales in the U.S. are going to rise this year, the industry is going to have to work very hard to regain consumer confidence. Almost certainly the companies will have to buy that confidence with rebates and other incentives. Market share will drive sales, and profits will have to wait at least until 2011. That’s not especially good news for General Motors or Chrysler or, for that matter, Ford.

Tell us what you think here.

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