An unnamed delegate at the meeting of OPEC oil ministers said in a formal announcement today that the cartel will make no change to its production quotas. WTI crude oil prices jumped to nearly $82 per barrel as traders coupled this news with the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep short-term interest rates steady, which led to a further weakening of the dollar.

Added to the mix was a report from the American Petroleum Institute that US crude oil inventories rose by only 400,000 barrels last week, more than two-thirds less than expected. The “official” report on US inventories will be released today by the US Energy Information Administration.

Most analysts see increasing demand for crude oil inventories from developing countries, particularly China, and that increase will drive prices higher. OPEC’s member nations already produce about 2 million barrels/day above their quota of about 25 million barrels/day.

The major integrated oil companies are seeing share prices rise in early trading this week, though flatten off by Friday. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) is flat, and Chevron Corp. (CVX) and ConocoPhillips Corp. (COP) are both up around 1%. Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS-A) up more than 1.5% on news that the company will boost production higher than previously forecast and cut costs by selling 15% of its refining assets and 35% of its retail outlets.

Even refining shares got a boost, though they seem to be giving it back later this week. Valero Corp. (VLO) was up more than 1.5% but is now flat. Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) and Western Refining Inc. (WNR) are both also even on the week. The rise in refining stocks is probably due to a widespread belief that crude oil prices won’t rise steadily to $85/barrel level.

A sector that is not doing well is oil field services, with most shares down about 1%-3% on teh week. Market cap leader Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB) is nearly flat, but Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) is down more than 2% as is Halliburton Co. (HAL).

Crude traders expect prices to rise steadily over the next two or three years. One estimate puts that rise at about $10/barrel/year. Given the projected weak demand from developed countries and the stronger demand from developing nations, that estimate works out to about 10%/year.

There is one thing that could put a kink in the rising price of crude, though. If the US were to declare that the Chinese were manipulating the renminbi and impose a stiff duty on Chinese goods, Chinese manufacturing would take a serious hit. The Chinese government is unwilling to let the currency appreciate, which amounts to a government subsidy for the country’s manufactured goods.

If the US gets tough with China, demand for crude in China will fall and prices should fall along with the lower demand. This would help the global economy get out of its slump, but it won’t prop up crude oil prices.

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