BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) reports earnings Thursday after the close. Analysts expect $1.35 or so per share, a 31% increase from a year ago. The whisper number is a penny less.

While RIMM has bested six of the past seven earnings forecasts, whispernumber.com reports that the company has missed the whisper number in three of the past four quarters, and 62% of the time over the past eight years. What’s more, the stock dropped by an average of 11.7% in just the one day following those three recent misses.

The stock has been on a downward trajectory since March, dropping more than 40% in the past six months.

Currently, the shares are struggling with their 10-day moving average and the $45 level, a site of heavy call open interest.

Sentiment toward RIMM is mixed, which is hard to justify for a stock that has performed so poorly. The most optimism comes from analysts, where 56% rate the stock a “buy” compared to just 11% “sells.” Most notable is the fact that this configuration is less optimistic than it was three months ago, a sign of unwinding optimism that does not bode well for the stock.

It used to be that Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone was the BlackBerry’s main competition. Now the Droid is making serious inroads among smartphone users. The inability of the BlackBerry to compete with the iPhone and Droid in the number of available apps is also a concern.

Look for RIMM to struggle with its earnings report and outlook, and expect more bullish analysts to abandon RIMM (frankly, what are they waiting for?). 

The RIMM Oct 45 Puts should do the trick, but make sure you jump in before the company reports earnings on Thursday.

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