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Watch S&P 1,173

A break below this level would establish a new downtrend


Current Long Positions (stop losses in parentheses): TICC ($10.28), HRS ($45.34), CEL ($32.89), BMRN ($25.80)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): TFSL ($8.23), ADBE ($30.10), DTV ($43.30), EQR ($51.15)

Bias: 2% Short

Economic Reports Due Out (times are EST): None

My Observations and What to Expect

* Futures are down slightly after selling off more than 11 points from the overnight highs on the S&P contract.

* Asian and European markets are mixed, but the latter has given up most of its gains from earlier in the trading session.

* 1,200 will continue to be the rally cry for both the bulls and bears.

* While the bulls managed to close above the 20-day moving average, the 10-day has been acting as additional resistance.

* The inability to hold overnight highs, and if the bulls cannot push through 1,200 early on in today’s trading session, it will be a very bad sign and could lead to an another sell-off in the market.

* Thursday and Friday’s strength should not be perceived as anything more than a dead-cat bounce at this juncture.

* This is what it boils down to: A break below 1,189 on the S&P will be a strong indication we are putting in a lower high. This isn’t a game changer, but a break of 1,173 over the coming days is — as it would establish a new downtrend with a lower low in place.

* For the bulls, the 1,200 price level and the 10-day moving averages must be retaken. Anything else will be indicative of failure.

* Thanksgiving week traditionally has a bullish bias.

Actions I Will Be Taking

* Will look to add two new positions to the portfolio today (a long and short position).

* Tightened the stop loss in BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: BMRN). Will likely tighten Cellcom Israel Ltd. (NYSE: CEL) today as well.

* Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR) (short) and BMRN (long) are the latest additions to the portfolio.

* May be tempted to book my gains in TFS Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: TFSL) at some point today.

* Follow me in the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades, including my day trades.

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