Following the big-volume binge on Friday, which resulted almost entirely from the last quadruple witching day of the year, volume should begin to fall as the Christmas holiday approaches and investors’ interests turn elsewhere. However the week after Christmas has, in recent years, ushered in a period of positive stock activity — the result of strong retail sales reports. This year most analysts are estimating at least a 3% rise in overall sales. Normally the market rises into the new year and early in 2010, the rally ended in the third week of January on a surge in volume — a classic selling climax.

Now, as to next year’s performance: I’ll have a more detailed study later this week, but the overall outlook for the market in 2011 is very positive. Most economic reports in December were positive or turning up and forecasts for next year are stronger too. Historically, the third year of a presidential term is usually very good for stocks.

I’ll have a short list of ETFs that should do well next year, but they do not include gold or silver shares. Both metals have recently shown signs of exhaustion, and so it is time to give those markets a rest until they have completed a normal correction and consolidation. The major ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD

), appears to have formed a huge double top while barely hanging above its 200-day moving average, and its MACD and stochastic have issued short-term sell signals. I don’t believe that gold has reached a permanent top, and long-term investors should continue to hold their shares of mining companies. But for now I would suspend any new purchases until the technical condition is resolved.

Meanwhile, other commodities-related investments continue to soar, and bonds seem on the edge of posting another leg down. We can take advantage of all of these trends by being in the appropriate ETFs and stocks. Later this week, in addition to the list of ETFs that look most promising, I will discuss trading targets for 2011.