Amgen Shares Set to Jump

It’s pretty well obscured if you’re just looking at a daily chart of Amgen (Nasdaq:AMGN). But take a step back and it becomes quite clear: This stock is finally ready to come out of a multi-year rut and start rewarding investors again.

There have been two major technical pressures holding Amgen down. The first was the upper edge of what we now can see is wedge pattern (orange). The resistance side of this triangle pattern was ultimately formed in late 2005, when the stock was trading above $80. It was the last time anyone ever saw shares in the $80’s though, as we a long-term string of lower highs started to take shape. Eventually, a resistance line was born, forcing the stock a little lower each time it was met.

In the meantime, long-term owners found a little comfort in the rising support line that kicked off something of a rebound after lows under $40 were hit in 2008. That rising support line became the other (bullish) side of the wedge pattern, and though it didn’t prompt a rebound at the time, it at least stopped the bleeding.

Things finally changed for the better in May though, as Amgen found its way above the upper edge of the wedge shape. The market may have collectively dismissed it, or perhaps just missed it. Make no mistake though – the breakout move is part of a paradigm shift trying to unfold here.

More recently – in the last year and a half – another part of that paradigm shift has become evident. Though no longer trapped in a wedge shape, a horizontal trading range between $50 and $61 has materialized (framed in blue).

While the move above the falling resistance line is a major catalytic event, the effort isn’t trade-worthy until the horizontal hurdle is cleared.

With the long-term perspective now in place, the daily chart – which would have otherwise looked a little shaky – actually looks quite compelling now.

Though AMGN shares have fallen back from $61 to a low around the mid-$56 area late last week, we’re already seeing a recovery effort (the stock slipped back below $58 in Wednesday trading). The bulls are working on getting the stock’s price back above the key 50-day moving average line (purple), which has proven in recent weeks to be a key support and resistance level.

More important than that though, and more bullish, is how the longer-term 200-day moving average line (green) is sloped upward while both of the short-term moving average lines are above it. This is a subtle but critical clue that the bigger trend is also a bullish one now — traders just have to pick their spots. Any entry just above the 50-day line in the $58 area would be a good one, in that you’re still getting in after a pullback, yet not stepping in at a peak.

The line in the sand is still $61. However, with the next breakout effort starting around $58 rather than $50 (which was the case the last time the ceiling at $61 was approached), this time around there should still be plenty of gas left in the tank to carry Amgen over that technical hump.

With all that being said, it bears mentioning that the most bullish technical chart in the world will still have a tough time making progress if the underlying company stinks. It’s a good thing Amgen doesn’t.

While the earnings growth rate for Amgen did indeed slow in 2010, the value never went away. The stock’s trailing P/E of 12.2 is literally as cheap as it’s been since 2003, and really, as cheap is it’s ever been if not counting the one big loss from late 2002. Better still, 2012’s estimated – and plausible – earnings per share of $5.69 would mean a record-breaking profit for the company.

If history is any guide, the stock will reflect that success long before the books do. In fact, the quick rebound from the recent pullback combined with the break above a major resistance line both suggest traders are warming up to that possibility, and trying to take a position in front of it. If and when $61 is topped though, that race could really heat up in a hurry.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/06/amgen-shares-set-to-jump/.

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