With global markets still reeling from the latest round of bad news emanating from the increasingly toxic quagmire in Europe, some hopeful traders are looking for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) earnings tonight to deliver a bag of goodies to the bulls. If recent history is any indication, it appears a gap higher following the release is a bit more likely than a gap lower. Four out of the past five quarterly announcements have resulted in up gaps.

Click to Enlarge Interestingly, with Monday’s close of $603.83, AAPL was a mere $6.17 — or 1% — below its closing price following 2012 Q1 earnings. Despite brazen predictions of bulls and bears alike, the past quarter has been a veritable stalemate.

The behavior of implied volatility has been pretty typical over the past few weeks, a gradual lift placing it at a notable premium to historical volatility. Traders inclined to play the earnings gap desirous of a high-probability outcome ought to consider selling volatility in some fashion before the close today.

Bulls might consider selling August bull put spreads. The Aug 540-535 put spread currently can be sold for a 55-cent credit. Traders looking for a more aggressive bullish bet could simply use higher strike prices to generate a larger net credit.

Another play worth consideration for those lacking a directional bias on AAPL is the iron condor. This multi-leg spread consists of simultaneously selling a bull put and bear call spread in the same expiration month. For example, traders could sell the aforementioned Aug 540-535 put spread as well as an Aug 655-660 call spread. The condor currently can be sold for around a $1.20 credit.

Consider it a bet that options are overpriced and AAPL will remain between $540 and $655 by August expiration.

As of this writing, Tyler Craig did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.