All About AAPL: Our Experts Weigh In

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In the wake of Tuesday’s iPad Mini release and Thursday’s softer-than-expected earnings, investors are naturally searching for answers about Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).

What — if anything — should you do with the recent news about this hot consumer electronics stock?

Our experts from across the financial world weigh in. Read on for a complete analysis of recent headlines … and how you might approach Apple stock now.

It’s Time to Buy

By Louis Navellier
Blue Chip Growth and other growth services

Share prices have been on the decline lately, and everyone is asking whether it’s time to sell Apple. My answer is a firm, “No!”

AAPL is like a helium balloon being held underwater. Try as you may to keep it submerged, it’s going to break the surface — and with force. Sure, earnings missed estimates by 0.9%, but it was still a record fourth quarter for the company. Compared with Q4 2011, Apple sold 58% more iPhones (26.9 million), 26% more iPads (14 million), and 1% more Macs (4.9 million). The only area where sales went down is iPods, as consumers opted for the more multifunctional iPhones and iPads instead.

As such, total sales advanced 27% year-over-year to $36 billion, topping the $35.8 billion consensus estimate. Over the same period, net income climbed 24% to $8.22 billion, or $8.67 per share.

Given these incredible sales figures, the cult-like following that hasn’t waned despite TV and online campaigns poking fun of it and the holiday season fast approaching, I highly recommend you add shares to your portfolio at current prices.

Hold, But Don’t Buy

By Jeff Reeves
Editor, InvestorPlace.com and The Slant

I personally own Apple, and I’m sitting on a decent profit even after the rollback from $700 a share … but I just can’t sell right now. Not yet.

That’s because beyond the headlines about an EPS miss, the details are encouraging. Namely, that it’s a supply issue and not a demand issue holding back Apple.

Consider this WSJ article from September about iPhone 5 supply issues coupled with recent declines — part of me thinks the issues were expected and baked in. And take this great post from Tiernan Ray at Barron’s about the after-hours recovery in shares thanks to encouraging comments in the conference call. Judging by today’s firmness in share pricing, Wall Street seems unfazed.

Of course, if the core problem is getting folks devices fast enough, there are still concerns for investors. Apple once again gave a disappointing forecast, pointing to a logistical mess that involves the launch of the iPad Mini, iPad 4, iPhone 5, redesigned iPods and a new line of Macs — all over several months! Not making that supply chain any easier, huh?

My advice: Don’t put new money in Apple. But if you already own shares, put a trailing stop of 5% or so (roughly $570) and ride it out through year’s end. Presuming Apple irons out supply issues and capitalizes on what might be a strong holiday shopping season, AAPL stock could very well bounce back a bit.

Of course I drank the Apple-flavored Kool-Aid and thought $700 was just one stop on the way to $1,000 … but that’s why I’m putting in a stop. Next time Apple drops, I’ll let the cold math of a stop-loss computer do the selling for me.

Awfully Enticing at $600

By John Markman
Trader’s Advantage

Coming off the introduction of its new iPad Mini, all the attention was focused on Apple, which reported earnings per share of $8.67 for the quarter, versus $8.75 estimates. Revenue beat by a touch, at $35.97 billion, but the main focus of attention was that forward guidance was dramatically lowered.

After hours, shares dropped temporarily by around 6%, but bounced back to nearly flat once traders realized that the guidance cut — while large — was smaller than normal. The company essentially guided for a $50 billion quarter coming up, which is mind-blowing.

Think about that: a $50 billion quarter. Three months, $50 billion! It’s easy to be jaded sometimes when you worry about sequential growth not being as stellar as you might like to see, but damn, that’s a lot of sales in three months for a company with essentially five products. Overall, sales of the new iPhone 5 were a little better than expected, while sales of iPads were a little worse.

My forecast is that Apple will do very well in the current quarter and for 2013 with the new iPad Mini, which appears to have a design, speed, software base and capabilities that will allow it to sell at a higher price point than rivals’ devices. It’s actually being priced such that current iPad users could buy an “extra” one for the home (or office), or for spouses or children. Just as you wouldn’t own just one pen, at this point, you could certainly own more than one iPad.

AAPL has the potential to be a bigger success than Wall Street consensus currently believes. If Apple shares continue to scuffle around the $600 level, I’ll consider entering.

All Eyes on the December Quarter

By Hilary Kramer
GameChangers

Even though Apple’s earnings were light, I believe iPhone shipments and management’s commentary around supply improvements effectively eliminate a key short-term bear argument for the stock. I expect Apple to quickly regain some of its recent losses as a result.

That said, I am concerned about the relatively lackluster earnings performance and the gross margin guidance. The margin issue will hopefully ease soon (if not, Apple ends up where its predecessors ended up — in the dinosaur graveyard of long-term deflating stock prices), but it will take strong revenues and earnings in the December quarter to make up for the past two earnings shortfalls.

Apple is still the leading player in tablets with about two-thirds of the market, and just introduced a new fourth-generation iPad. Still, the company said iPad sales from last quarter topped the 100 million mark, implying weaker-than-anticipated sales. And the $329 price point for the new iPad Mini is too high to fend off cheaper competitors — I’m worried about the bottom-line impact of nibbles from Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) line and the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Fire.

I am now more cautious regarding my estimates and projections for an improved revenue number. Until then, I think a 12-month target of $750 is reasonable, based on a 14x multiple on the new 2013 earnings estimates.

Growth at Value Prices

By Tom Taulli
IPO Playbook

Many tech companies have struggled to figure out mobile — I’m looking at you, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) and Dell (NASDAQ:DELL). But not Apple. The company is likely to continue to benefit from the tremendous growth in the mobile space, both with smartphones and tablets.

But there’s more to the story than the sexy “mobile” headline. For example, Apple has a robust Mac business. And during the latest quarter, revenues for the laptop segment spiked an eye-popping 47%.

At the same time, Apple is moving aggressively into the cloud — another megatrend. iCloud has seen more than 190 million signups since it launched a year ago. This nascent business should represent a nice revenue opportunity, such as for subscriptions to music, movies and other premium services.

The valuation for Apple also is very compelling. The forward price-to-earnings ratio is only 10x. Keep in mind that the multiples for Microsoft and Intel are 9x and 11x, respectively. Apple is much better positioned and should continue to grow at double-digit rates for the next couple years.

So despite last night’s stumble, the company still looks like a compelling value.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2012/10/all-about-aapl-our-experts-weigh-in/.

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