Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) Stock Isn’t an Investment

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It’s no secret that the past five years or so have been one heck of a roller coaster ride for investors in copper and gold miner Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX). Prices and demand for commodities cratered after the recession and credit crisis, which included both gold and copper — Freeport’s two biggest revenue streams.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) Stock Isn't an Investment

With copper and gold prices in the proverbial toilet, FCX was caught between a rock and a hard place. So it did what any firm would do and looked for ways to diversify. It found that in energy production.

The problem is, Freeport basically made a massive debt-fueled buying binge right at the top of the market. That bout of M&A almost sunk the company into bankruptcy.

Just when you think FCX was out of the woods with regards to that issue, it’s hit with problems coming from its largest mine. And just when that problem is over … well, I think I made my point.

The truth is FCX has become a trade — beholden its news cycle of boom and bust. For investors looking for a value in the commodity sector, FCX stock isn’t it.

FCX Stock Comes Out of the Fire

Freeport-McMoRan’s latest debacle stems from its largest mine in Indonesia. FCX’s Grasberg mine is the world’s second largest copper mine and one of the cheapest to operate, thanks to the gold it also produces. Grasberg accounts for about a third of Freeport’s copper production and accounts for about 50% of the value of its assets.

The problem is that the Indonesian government decided to make changes to its mining laws. Those changes called for higher royalty payments and more local control of mines. Strikes erupted at the mine in protest of the mining rates, and FCX is giving the Indonesian government 120 days to resolve the issues before suing them. For heavily indebted Freeport, this was a major headache and had some serious effects on its corporate health. During its last earnings announcement, FCX reported lower overall copper and gold sales. Much of the dip could be attributed to issues at Grasberg.

But there was a shred of good news in the earnings report: The Indonesian government seemed to be willing to play ball.

As part of the regulatory changes, FCX was barred from exporting copper concentrates. However, the Indonesian government decided to issued a permit to its 90%-owned subsidiary PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI) that would allow exports to resume for a six-month period. Negotiations on new operating concessions, royalty rates and other agreements are still ongoing.

While the news wasn’t a full deal, the sheer act of being able to get some sort of revenues out of the mine is critical for FCX. So natural shares of Freeport have risen steadily since it released its earnings at the end of April.

FCX Stock Back Into the Frying Pan

On the surface, it appears everything is going golden (or in this case, red) for Freeport. But just as investors are getting some good news on the Indonesian front, copper is an unwilling participant.

While the tail end of 2016 and the beginning of this year brought higher prices for copper, the tide is turning. Demand from chief consumer China has stalled and imports have fallen hard. That’s caused inventories at the London Metals Exchange to rise by 64,000 tons, or 25% in May alone. As expected prices for copper have fallen by the wayside and have drifted sideways in recent sessions. Other industrial metals, such as nickel, have also tanked.

Prices could continue their downward trend as China has recently begun putting the brakes on credit growth. This included loans for construction of infrastructure projects as well as manufacturing. That’s kind of a big deal as China accounts for about 45% of global copper consumption.

Another major other chunk of that consumption is the U.S. With many of Trump’s promises and policy plans meeting plenty of opposition and stalling, his widely touted $1 trillion infrastructure boost could meet an untimely demise. This will only put more pressure on copper prices, and on FCX stock as well.

Freeport needs higher copper prices and resumed production from its Grasberg facility to keep on keepin’ on with its debt reduction plans. If prices keep falling, so will FCX shares.

Bottom Line on FCX Stock

For would-be investors, FCX is a perfect example of a trade. It never really can get its act together before it gets taken down a few pegs. That makes it hard for those who want to buy and hold shares. It’s not that money can’t be made from FCX, it’s just that money comes mostly from flipping. And the current round of heartbeat to heartbreak is just the latest in a long series of roller coaster hills.

For those looking for a real commodity investment, FCX stock may not suit you. It’ perhaps best to leave Freeport-McMoRan to the professional traders.

As of this writing, Aaron Levitt did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Aaron Levitt is an investment journalist living in Ohio. With nearly two decades of experience, his work appears in several high-profile publications in both print and on the web. Also likes a good Reuben sandwich. Follow his picks and pans on Twitter at @AaronLevitt.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/05/freeport-mcmoran-inc-fcx-stock-isnt-an-investment/.

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