For the last several months of 2017, I felt like I was alone in my bearish stance on consumer tech giant Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL).

Wall Street analysts and investors alike were talking about an iPhone X “super cycle” that would be unprecedented in size and scope. That super cycle was supposed to drive Apple stock to new all-time highs. And everyone who owned the stock would be a big winner.

I never believed any of that hype. Very few people I knew were buying the iPhone X or 8. Of those who bought the X, most of them said it wasn’t worth it. That talk of “the iPhone X isn’t worth a $1,000” spread quickly. And all the sudden, buyer interest came to a screeching halt.

Investors had a rude awakening to this reality in early February, when Apple reported a sizable iPhone shipments miss for the holiday quarter. Worse yet, Apple gave a down guide which pointed to further deterioration in already deteriorating iPhone trends.

Apple stock dropped. By a bunch. From $180 to $155.

That was the time to buy. The big drop meant the flawed super cycle thesis was being priced out of AAPL stock. With that priced out, AAPL stock looked attractive at $155.

Indeed, Apple stock roared higher over the next several weeks to back above $180 by late February.

Now, Apple stock is dropping again. And again, I think we are approaching a long-term buying opportunity.

Here’s why.

Services and Tax Reform Tailwinds

Apple stock currently trades around 17 times trailing earnings. The only other time in the past five years that Apple stock was this richly valued was back in late 2014/early 2015. At that point in time, the iPhone 6 super cycle was the talk of the town.

When that super cycle talk broke down, AAPL stock fell. The valuation on the stock collapsed from a high-teens earnings multiple to a low double-digit earnings multiple. And Apple stock went from $130 to $90.

Naturally, it’s easy to draw parallels to today’s broken super cycle talk. As the iPhone X super cycle breaks down, then Apple stock will fall. Much like it did in 2015. Right?

Not right.

Back in early 2015, there wasn’t anything else supporting Apple stock’s extended valuation. Just iPhone 6 hopes. iPad sales were reeling. The Services business was growing at a sub-10% clip. The “Other Products” part of Apple was in decline. There was no tax reform tailwind.

Today, there is a lot to like about Apple stock beyond the iPhone business.

iPad sales are staging a huge comeback. The Services business is growing at a 20-30% clip. Growth here will likely only get bigger over the next several years thanks to Apple’s big push into original content.

The Other Products part of Apple is growing at a 30%-plus clip. Again, growth here will remain big thanks to surging popularity of the Apple Watch. There is a huge tax reform tailwind coming that will likely result in boosted earnings, massive buybacks, a bigger dividend, and acquisitions.

All in all, there is a ton of positive stuff for Apple stock to fall back on once iPhone X super cycle talk breaks down. Indeed, I think it already broke down in early February.

Now, the current valuation doesn’t reflect optimism over super-charged iPhone unit growth. Rather, the current valuation reflects optimism over super-charged growth from original content, the app ecosystem, Apple Watch, higher iPhone selling prices, and tax reform.

That optimism isn’t misplaced.

Bottom Line on Apple Stock

For all the aforementioned reasons, Apple stock looks tasty on this big dip.

But by my numbers, AAPL stock isn’t a buy just yet. From this year’s projected sales base of $262 billion, I think Apple can grow revenues by roughly 5% per year over the subsequent five years to $334.4 billion.

Operating margins should head higher in that time frame thanks to Services business ramp and higher average selling prices on iPhones. All in all, I think operating margins can get to 30% in five years (roughly in-line with historical average).

That would imply operating profits of $100.3 million in five years. Taking out 15% for taxes and dividing by presumably 4.5 billion diluted shares, you get to roughly $19 in earnings per share. A historically normal 14-times multiple on $19 earnings yields a five-year forward price target of $266. Discounting that back by 10% per year, you get to a present value of around $165.

I’m a buyer below that $165 level. As such, I’m waiting for Apple stock to dip into the lower $160s/upper $150s before buying more.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AAPL.