Wow! The Economy… Just, Wow!

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Politically-motivated people can spin it all they want, but there ain’t a thing wrong with the economy. The economic data says as much. Jobs, wages, and even home sales — based on reports from the prior week — are all making it clear that the broad tide is rising. That is, at least in the United States.

And, perhaps most important of all (and for the first time in a long while), consumers are feeling as good about the economy and opportunities. That’s critical, in that 2/3 of the United States’ economy is consumer-powered. If they’re optimistic, and therefore spending, that consumerism revs the economic engine.

But, don’t take my word for it. In that pictures say a thousand words, the following five images pack a massive amount of economic data within them, delivering it in a matter of seconds.

Wow! The Economy: Jobs

Although it’s not actually the most meaningful of the economic barometers that can push the market higher or lower, it is the most watched barometer. That’s job-growth, of course, paired with the nation’s unemployment rate.

Wow! The Economy: Jobs
Source: ThinkorSwim

Friday’s update from the Department of Labor indicated we’re now sporting a multi-year unemployment rate of 3.8%, on the heels of 223,000 new positions created in May.

 

Wow! The Economy: Wages

Job-creation is only half the story, though, and doesn’t mean much if workers aren’t actually seeing bigger paychecks that verify employers are increasingly competing for talent.

Don’t worry. That’s happening, too. Last month’s average hourly pay grew 0.3% from April’s levels, and was up 2.7% year over year, both topping expectations.

Wow! The Economy: Wages
Source: ThinkorSwim

[Note that the chart above does not yet reflect May’s wage growth. If it did, the average hourly pay rate here would be around $10.88.]

 

Wow! The Economy: Consumer Sentiment

And, by the way, workers/consumers feel a little richer than they’ve felt in years, too. That’s half the battle for a consumer-centric economy… creating an environment where they’re less likely to keep earned money tucked away and out of circulation, and more likely to spend that money where it then creates demand for more goods and services (by helping to create new jobs).

Wow! The Economy: Consumer Sentiment
Source: ThinkorSwim

As of last month, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure reached 128.0, and the trend is knocking on the door of the multi-year highs seen just a couple of months ago.

 

Wow! The Economy: Home Sales

It’s also worth understanding that consumers who are feeling more confident aren’t just saying so. They’re putting their money where their mouths are, increasingly committing to the largest investment most of them will ever make — buying a home. This is particularly true for new-home sales, though demand for existing homes is still strong, and trending higher.

Wow! The Economy: Home Sales
Source: ThinkorSwim

 

On both fronts, a lack of inventory, rather than a lack of demand, may be holding home purchases back from their true potential.

Wow! The Economy: GDP

Last quarter’s initial GDP growth reading was dialed back from 2.3% to 2.2%, and is unlikely to change much (if at all) when we get the third and final reading later this month. But, 2.2% is still healthy, even if cooler than the growth pace we were seeing just a few quarters ago.

Wow! The Economy: GDP
Source: ThinkorSwim

What’s changed in just the past couple of years is the consistency of growth. We’ve not seen negative GDP rates since 2013, making it less likely we’d see subsequently huge year-over-year comparisons only because the historical comparison was a weak one.

 

Wow! The Economy: Industrial Activity

Last, but not least, although possibly the least-watched (despite the fact that it’s the most important piece of economic data to chew on), the nation’s factories are about as busy as they’ve been in years. The Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production index hit a record-high of 262.6 in April.

Wow! The Economy: Industrial Activity
Source: ThinkorSwim

 

Bottom Line on All This Economic Data

Perfect? No, there’s always room for improvement. If we’re being intellectually honest with ourselves and each other, though, this is a rather amazing wave of economic strength. All too often, one piece of this economic data or another is acting as a stumbling block, preventing the economy from firing on all cylinders. Not so right now, though.

This is about as good as it gets, and so far, the gettin’s been good without rampant inflation or soaring interest rates. In other words, it’s a not-too-hot, not-too-cold situation.

To be clear, none of this is to suggest the stock market won’t suffer a correction soon. The market ebbs and flows. That’s a short-term gyration, though. The bigger-picture undertow that makes or breaks a bull market is most definitely still flowing in a bullish direction.

The trick, of course, is sustaining that fine balance between too hot and too cold. Thus far, we’ve managed to walk that tightrope. Assuming we’re going to fall off of it at any given moment could mean missed opportunities.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/06/economic-data-jobs-wages-gdp-home-sales/.

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