From late April to early June, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) went gangbusters.
The company reported a double beat quarter at the beginning of May which was highlighted by 60%-plus commerce growth and 100%-plus cloud growth. It also acquired Daraz and continued to expand the commerce business into Southeast Asia. Analysts were upping their price targets. BABA stock was soaring from $170 to $200 and up.
But ever since BABA stock broke above $200 in early June, the narrative has changed course.
Now, everyone is (again) worried about a trade war erupting between China and the United States. Alibaba, as China’s biggest commerce company with growing multinational exposure, is commonly viewed as a victim if trade war tensions escalate.
That big concern has created some choppiness in BABA stock. For most of June, the stock has just bounced between $200 and $210, and made no sustainable move higher.
Should that worry investors?
Hardly. This is just a minor consolidation period before the upward run continues. Valuation doesn’t become a problem for this stock until $220 at the earliest, and the growth narrative through Asia digital commerce expansion and robust cloud growth remains strong.
As such, I’m still bullish on BABA stock.
Here’s a deeper look:
Everything Is Still Great for Alibaba
In the big picture, trade war fears present a rather small risk. Elsewhere, everything is going really well for Alibaba.
At its core, Alibaba is a hyper-growth digital commerce business with full exposure to China’s rapidly growing consumer class. As China’s consumer class has quickly grown in size and spending volume, Alibaba’s core digital commerce business has taken off like a rocket ship. Even on a massive base on $8.2 billion last quarter, revenues still rose over than 60% in the core commerce business.
This hyper-growth isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
China’s per capita annual household expenditures stand at about $3,600. In the U.S., that figure stands close to $23,000. Clearly, China’s per capita expenditures still have a ton of room to expand.
Moreover, China’s per capita expenditures grew by over 4% last year, not far off the trailing five-year compounded annual growth rate of 6.5%. So, growth in per capita spending isn’t materially slowing, and that gives credence to the thesis that growth should remain strong into the foreseeable future.
Strong per capita spending growth in China will help sustain strong growth numbers in Alibaba’s core China commerce business. But it is growth outside of the China commerce business that gives Alibaba a five- to 10-year runway for 20%-plus revenue growth.
In the Southeast Asian countries that Alibaba is expanding its commerce business to like Indonesia and Thailand, per-capita household expenditure growth is running between 5-10%, above China’s current growth rate. Considering Alibaba presently has limited exposure in those markets, and that per capita expenditure growth is bigger than in China, these Southeast Asian commerce markets present a huge opportunity for Alibaba to super-charge revenue growth over the next five to 10 years.
Beyond commerce, Alibaba also runs one of the fastest growing cloud businesses in the world, where 100%-plus growth has become the norm. The company is also a leader in China when it comes to artificial intelligence and self-driving, two markets which are oozing with hyper-growth potential.
Valuation Isn’t a Problem Until the $220s
Owing to its massive growth potential through China commerce, Southeast Asia commerce, and global cloud expansion, Alibaba stock is far from overvalued at $200.
Revenue growth has been running around 60% for two years now, and is expected to be above 60% this year. That is impressive resilience for a such a big growth rate.
Naturally, things will slow over the next several years. Scale will eventually become a problem. The China commerce market will eventually end its hyper-growth phase. Global cloud growth rates will eventually slow.
Still, Alibaba is easily a 30-35% revenue growth company over the next several years. The margin expansion narrative is also quite compelling as the company’s core commerce business operates at sky-high EBITDA margins of over 50%. The other growth business aren’t profitable, mostly because Alibaba is spending big to grow them.
But at scale, those businesses become profitable. And that will grow Alibaba’s overall margin profile meaningfully.
Under the assumption that revenue growth runs around 30-35% and profit margins expand meaningfully, I think Alibaba can net around $17 in earnings per share in five years. An average growth-stock multiple of 20-times forward earnings on that implies a four-year forward price target of $340. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a present-day value of $230.
Bottom Line on BABA Stock
The past few weeks have been choppy for BABA stock. But that is nothing to worry about. The big picture growth narrative remains resoundingly positive, while the stock’s valuation doesn’t look troubled until it closes in on $230.
As such, sticking with BABA stock through this turbulence around $200 is the right move.
As of this writing, Luke Lango was long BABA.