In the 19 months that President Donald Trump has been in office, the markets for the most part have shrugged off any political drama. Optimism toward tax reform and a strengthening economy more than offset any worries in 2016-2017. And since the market hit its highs in late January, choppy trading seemingly has been driven more by valuation concerns and secular pressure in key sectors than politics.
I don’t expect the most recent bit of drama to change that pattern. On Monday, in an interview with Reuters, Trump criticized the Federal Reserve and chairman Jerome Powell for raising interest rates. That echoed comments made a month ago to CNBC’s Joe Kernen, in which the president said he was “not thrilled” with rate hikes.
Monday’s criticism did appear to move the markets. The dollar weakened, and U.S. equities slipped. But from a longer-term perspective, for two key reasons, it’s unlikely Trump’s talk will have a significant impact on either the bond or the equity markets.
Reason No. 1: His Comments Are Just More Cross-Talk
The first reason is that Trump’s comments aren’t necessarily part of a greater policy — or an aggressive plan to signal the administration’s desires to the Fed and to the markets as a whole. Instead, they’re another part of what has been a confusing message from Trump and his advisers on interest rates and the strength of the dollar.
Higher interest rates, after all, generally lead to a strong currency. Worldwide investors can get a better return on their investments in the United States versus Europe, for instance, where a key interest rate remains negative. That demand in turn strengthens the U.S. currency against those of other countries (or the EU).
And the Trump Administration has seemed to want a strong dollar … sometimes. Comments from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin — who said the country would prefer a weaker currency to boost trade — sent the dollar plunging back in January. Trump himself walked those comments back the same day.
But in July, Trump complained about the strong dollar:
China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollars gets stronger and stronger with each passing day – taking away our big competitive edge. As usual, not a level playing field…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 20, 2018
And then last week he seemed to reverse field once again:
Our Economy is doing better than ever. Money is pouring into our cherished DOLLAR like rarely before, companies earnings are higher than ever, inflation is low & business optimism is higher than it has ever been. For the first time in many decades, we are protecting our workers!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 16, 2018
The net result is confusion — which generally isn’t good for markets. But at the least, it means few traders are going to take Trump’s most recent comments as a notable change in federal policy.
Reason No. 2: Trump Can’t Do Much About the Fed
Regardless of Trump’s feelings, the other issue is that Federal Reserve remains independent. Trump’s comments are a notable break from a political tradition of respecting that independence, admittedly. But that’s all they are: comments.
Powell just took over in February — and is serving a four-year term. Two other nominees to the seven-member board are awaiting confirmation from the Senate, which is expected to be rather easy. Both nominees have insisted that they would maintain the Federal Reserve’s independence.
With inflation starting to tick up, and unemployment low, the traditional Fed playbook suggests it’s time to modestly raise rates. That’s the most likely outcome, particularly given that commentary surrounding the last rate hike sounded more “hawkish.” There’s really little Trump can do about it — no matter his desires.
What Should You Do About the Federal Reserve Comments?
What does all that mean for investors? First, it means investors should stay calm. Again, we’ve been here before. Tariffs rattled markets, but the noise has passed. The same is true of the North Korea negotiations, the Mueller investigation, and other political happenings and sideshows. There’s simply not enough meat on the metaphorical bone to go racing to buy puts on the S&P 500 – or make huge currency bets. Higher interest rates generally are cited as a negative for stocks. But as I wrote this month, that’s not always the case.
For bond investors, it is an interesting time. Rate hikes should move Treasury yields higher — and yields did clear 3% for the first time in four years back in April. (That, too, rattled equity markets, but only briefly.) But on Friday, well-known bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach cited a potential short squeeze in Treasuries – which would raise prices and thus lower yields. Treasury yields of course will have a ripple effect on the entire bond market, as more risky bonds should require higher yields than Treasuries.
All told, it’s likely to be a choppy market in both equities and bonds going forward. That’s not necessarily new: that has been the case for much of 2018, at least in the U.S. That’s not necessarily a bad thing for individual investors, as price movement creates more buying (and selling) opportunities. Those investors should stick to their plans, and try to tune out the extraneous noise. The president jawboning the Fed seems to qualify.