Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) stock soared after Election Day 2020 — even before the next President of the United States was officially announced — because Democrats ultimately failed to flip the Senate.
That is, going into Election Day, there were concerns that Democrats would retain the House and win the Senate, creating a “blue wave” across Washington that would set the stage for sweeping reform over the next few years.
Part of that sweeping reform would be tighter regulation of big tech companies, which many feared would ultimately result in Washington breaking up Amazon and separating the company’s cloud business (Amazon Web Services) from its core e-commerce platform (Amazon.com).
But that’s not going to happen. And because it’s not going to happen, Amazon stock is flying higher.
Zooming out, Amazon is maybe the most innovative and powerful company in the world today, with multiple mega-tailwinds supporting big growth for a lot longer. The only thing that has really been holding Amazon stock back over the past few months has been politics. With political headwinds now sidelined, AMZN stock is ready to rip higher for the foreseeable future.
Amazon Stock: The E-Commerce Takeover
If it seems like we’ve been waiting for the digital shopping revolution for a while. Well, we have. But very few sales actually occur online (only 16% of U.S. retail sales were online sales). And that’s post-pandemic figures. Clearly e-commerce still has a ways to go. But, in the long run, it is likely that e-commerce sales eventually account for 50% or more of total retail sales, given that the e-commerce channel offers a similar shopping experience to the physical channel with superior convenience (and that experience is only getting better, with features like VR), while younger consumers — who will, one day, be the entire consumer class — already do about 60% of their shopping online.
Thus, long-term, the e-commerce market will likely increase by 3X to 4X in size. Of course, on its face, that is great news for Amazon, because they are the largest e-commerce platform in the world.
But, digging deeper, it’s even better news for Amazon than you would expect.
As I’ve said before, a big chunk of this growth will come from an acceleration of e-commerce penetration in under-penetrated categories, including food (3.7%), auto (5.2%) and personal care (13.3%).
Amazon’s presence in those markets is large. So it can lean into its built-in marketplace and Prime user base to rapidly expand its footprint (which is already massive) across the aforementioned categories.
Big picture: Amazon’s e-commerce business will continue to fire on all cylinders for the foreseeable future, rattling off double-digit growth rates for many years to come. Sustained big growth herein will provide support for continued gains in AMZN stock.
Everything Is Going to the Cloud
At the same time that all retail sales are pivoting online, all workflows, processes and data are similarly pivoting into the cloud. And, much like Amazon.com is the most dominant e-commerce platform in the market, Amazon Web Services is the most dominant cloud computing platform in the market.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to connect those dots.
Over the next few years, more and more companies will pivot more and more workflows, processes and data into the cloud as they digitize their operations and offices. As that happens, most of them will choose Amazon Web Services as their cloud infrastructure provider because AWS offers the best prices and the most capability, and has the leading brand awareness.
To that extend, AWS is going to sustain enormous growth for a lot longer. Importantly, this is a high-margin business — whereas the slower growing retail business is a low-margin business — so outsized AWS growth will push profit margins higher over time, and be a big driver of exceptional profit growth.
Behind this exceptional profit growth, AMZN stock should keep powering higher.
Rates Are Still at Zero
We also can’t forget Amazon’s digital ad business, another high-margin digital business that is growing very rapidly. Or Amazon’s offline retail business, a nascent business that could one day revolutionize physical shopping with things like cashier-less checkout systems. Or Amazon’s newfound self-driving business, which following the acquisition of Zoox could turn into something very big long-term.
Putting it all together, what you have with Amazon is arguably the most innovative growth company in the world.
Now, consider the market backdrop. Interest rates are at zero. When interest rates are at zero, investors tend to pile into growth stocks, because they offer relatively better risk-reward profiles in a lower rate environment.
Who is king of the growth stocks?
Naturally, then, so long as interest rates remain at zero and Amazon remains king of growth stocks, AMZN stock will move higher, especially now that political headwinds have been sidelined.
Bottom Line on Amazon Stock
The only thing holding AMZN stock back over the past few months has been politics. Those political headwinds are now sidelined. What comes next should be a sustained, healthy rally in Amazon stock.
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
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