Electric vehicle (EV) stocks have been in a sickening decline for months now. Churchill Capital IV (NYSE:CCIV) stock hasn’t been spared. That’s quite a reversal of fortune.
In fact, CCIV stock is arguably one of the leading exemplars of irrational exuberance in the EV space earlier this year.
You’ll recall that CCIV stock went as high as $60 at one point. That was a huge premium to the $10 price at which many special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) offer their shares to the public.
At $60, essentially, traders were betting that Churchill and its acquisition target Lucid would be worth as much as six times as much as Churchill was actually paying to Lucid’s owners in the merger.
That was further backed up when CCIV/Lucid raised additional funds at $15 per share, whereas shares were trading on the open market for nearly $60 at that point.
So, it’s clear that folks got a little carried away taking CCIV stock up to that price. Since shares have subsequently collapsed, a lot of traders have given up on the company. That said, it’s actually gotten more interesting now that the price has dropped.
Now a Decent Entry Point
It takes years to go from concept to commercial success when developing an electric vehicle. Needless to say, the actual fundamentals around Lucid haven’t changed dramatically over the past few months. Yet the share price has experienced wild volatility over that period.
That volatility can only be explained by sentiment and emotional trading, given that Lucid’s actual business outlook hasn’t meaningfully shifted.
That said, Lucid is making incremental progress. Management said that it is now up to 9,000 registrations for its Air sedans. That’s up from around 7,500 when the SPAC deal was announced.
The company has produced more prototype vehicles. It’s also opening more stores and getting its sales and marketing team ready for the push toward commercial production.
Lucid has one bit of positive news last week. On Tuesday, the firm tweeted that it will soon be trading under the ticker “LCID” on the Nasdaq. That’s not unexpected news. However, many SPAC mergers have gotten slowed down recently due to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) new rules around accounting standards for SPAC warrants.
In any case, Lucid’s tweet seems to indicate that the merger is on track for a speedy conclusion.
As of yet, there’s no set date yet, but it looks like the deal should be finalized by the third quarter of this year. Up until recently, SPACs tended to pop once they completed their mergers and switched to the new ticker symbol and corporate name.
However, now, with the poor market for SPACs generally, there are no guarantees that Lucid will pop post-merger closing.
Potential Partnership With Apple?
It’s no secret that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is fascinated by the potential in the automobile market. Apple became the world’s most valuable consumer products company with the iPhone. Not surprisingly, however, that’s been a tough act to follow. What could it launch that would come close to matching the iPhone in terms of either innovation or commercial success?
With that in mind, a leading electric vehicle would be one of the few things that could still move the needle for Apple at this point. Apple is set to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures and research and development in coming years. With a good chunk of that going to vehicles, Apple could turn into a major player.
To that end, there have been tons of rumors about Apple and Lucid potentially working together on a vehicle in the future. So far, Lucid’s management has denied any material talks between the two firms. However, traders remain optimistic that Lucid has some partnerships in the works.
CCIV Stock Verdict
It’s been a dismal few months for the EV stocks, and there’s little sign that the pain is ending yet, at least for the group as a whole. However, it’s crucial to realize that CCIV stock is now starting to show some relative strength. Shares could have easily continued trending lower here, instead they appear to find support here in the $18 range.
Assuming this divergence continues, it should only be a matter of time until EV stocks start to bounce with Lucid leading the way. The past few weeks in particular have tested the confidence of anyone holding shares in CCIV or other leading EV names. However, that persistence could be rewarded soon.
On the date of publication, Ian Bezek did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Ian Bezek has written more than 1,000 articles for InvestorPlace.com and Seeking Alpha. He also worked as a Junior Analyst for Kerrisdale Capital, a $300 million New York City-based hedge fund. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.