Facebook’s Stumble Is Only Temporary, So Buy the Dip

On July 30 I wrote that Facebook was likely worth $517 per share, or 44% higher than its price at the time. That was when FB stock was at $358.32 per share. Since then, it has tumbled to just $328.53 as of Oct. 14. I still feel that it is worth my original price, and probably even more.

someone using the Facebook (FB stock) app on their phone in front of a laptop that also has the Facebook webpage on it

Source: Chinnapong / Shutterstock.com

Facebook stock recently reached a peak of $382.18 on Sept. 7. Since then, it has taken a 14% tumble as of Oct. 14. It might be a good time to take advantage of this dip.

One reason is that analysts since then have actually raised their average revenue forecasts for 2022. In other words, they are not very concerned about the troubles Facebook is having with criticism of its social media practices. Wall Street could probably care less about these controversies, as long as the company keeps on pumping out huge amounts of free cash flow (FCF).

Where This Leaves Facebook Stock Now

For example, as of Oct. 14, analysts had an average revenue forecast of $142.34 billion for the year ending Dec. 2022. But this is now 1.22% higher than the $140.59 billion sales estimate from July.

In my last article, based on my analysis of the company’s Q2 FCF results and its 29.5% half-year FCF margin, I estimated FCF would hit $41.47 billion in 2022. This was done by multiplying the $140.59 billion sales 2022 estimate by 29.5%.

Using an FCF yield metric of 2.83% and dividing $41.47 billion by that figure resulted in a market value of $1.465 trillion. That worked out to a price of $517 per share.

But as I say, now analysts have raised their revenue targets by 1.2%. So theoretically, I should raise my target price by this amount. But to be conservative, I will maintain my price target of $517 per share.

Where This Leaves the Company’s Prospects

CNBC recently ran a story about what will probably happen to Facebook following its current controversy. They correctly noted that “advertisers can’t get enough of the company’s targeting and scale.”

But the authors at CNBC thought the company might face difficulties with regulations and hiring. Is that it?

If that is the case, I’ll take the “over,” in betting terms. In other words, if that is all the trouble that Facebook is going to get into, I don’t think it will matter much.

Advertisers might take a beat on advertising at Facebook, but they won’t stay away long — especially if they realize their competitors aren’t going to leave Facebook behind.

Additionally, regulators will always be after successful companies like this. It’s now considered by companies and analysts on Wall Street part of the cost of doing business. They could care less for the most part.

The point is that this really seems to be a temporary blip in the long-term prospects for the financial health of the company. The only thing that matters is whether its 2022 revenue and FCF targets will be affected.

I don’t think they will be. There isn’t any evidence of this. In fact, as I pointed out, analysts have raised their revenue forecasts.

What to Do With FB Stock

If it isn’t obvious to you by now, I am pointing out that now is a good time to take advantage of this recent 14% dip in FB stock. The reason is that its long-term value will not change.

In fact, sticking to my $517 price target gives FB stock a potential upside of 57.4% over today’s price. This makes the stock even more attractive to long-term thinking investors who are willing to look through any damage its present circumstances could create.

On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake did not hold a position in any security mentioned in the article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Mark Hake writes about personal finance on mrhake.medium.com and runs the Total Yield Value Guide which you can review here.


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