Ocugen Investors Are Betting On a Horse Than Can’t Win the Race

For technical traders, it might be tempting to accumulate shares of biopharmaceutical company Ocugen (NASDAQ:OCGN) because OCGN stock has come down to a seemingly fair price.

OCGN stock: hands of medical professional holding a syringe, symbolizing vaccine
Source: shutterstock.com/PhotobyTawat

Yet, let’s not forget the old Warren Buffett saying. It goes something like this: price is what you pay, but value is what you actually get.

So, is OCGN a good value at its reduced price point? That depends, in large part, on Ocugen’s financials, which aren’t looking too healthy.

Moreover, since Ocugen is a Covid-19 vaccine developer, we have to consider how the company is faring on the regulatory front. As it turns out, there are issues in that area, as well.

A Closer Look at OCGN Stock

Before talking about support levels, we should discuss OCGN’s resistance level, which is definitely $15.

In February, May and November, the stock spiked to $15 before declining sharply.

Therefore, if you’re bold enough to take a long position, you might consider taking profits at $15 just to stay safe.

On the other end of the spectrum, OCGN stock has strong support at $6.

The stock bounced off of that level in April and again in October, and stayed near $6 for five consecutive months starting in June.

Checking in on Dec. 2, the share price is almost exactly $6. That might just be an eerie coincidence, but it feels meaningful.

Therefore, from a price-action perspective, OCGN stock looks pretty tempting. Informed investors need to be big-picture thinkers, though, and check the company’s fundamentals as well.

So, let’s see how Ocugen’s faring on the fiscal front.

Financially Frail

Just to give you a quick primer, Ocugen’s Covid-19 vaccine candidate is known as Covaxin.

Ocugen is co-developing Covaxin with India-based Bharat Biotech, and is advancing the drug in the U.S. and Canadian markets.

It’s worth noting that Ocugen also seeks to treat underserved diseases such as wet age-related macular degeneration, diabetic macular edema and diabetic retinopathy.

Let’s be honest, though – Wall Street is much more interested in Covaxin’s progress (or lack thereof), which we’ll get to in a moment.

Right now, the topic of discussion is Ocugen’s financials, and they’re not particularly encouraging.

During 2021’s third quarter, Ocugen generated zero total revenues.

The same could actually be said about the first three quarters of 2021.

Now, let’s look at the bottom-line results. During 2021’s first three quarters, Ocugen sustained a net earnings loss of $43,784,000.

That’s significantly worse than the $30,578,000 net loss from the comparable period of 2020.

So far, this analysis isn’t painting Ocugen in a positive light. Will the outlook brighten when we focus on Covaxin’s progress with regulators?

Good News, Bad News

Let’s start with a development that should provide some relief to OCGN stock holders.

The Lancet, a widely respected medical journal, published the results of a Phase 3 trial of Covaxin.

The data indicates that Covaxin demonstrated a 93.4% efficacy rate against severe Covid-19.

That’s a great result, but there are other numbers to consider. Specifically, Covaxin demonstrated 77.8% overall efficacy against Covid-19, 63.6% efficacy against asymptomatic Covid-19 and 65.2% efficacy against the delta variant strain.

Those lower figures might make Covaxin less useful in certain contexts.

Worse yet, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently issued a clinical hold on an Investigational New Drug application (IND) to evaluate Covaxin outside of the U.S.

That’s a stumbling block on the regulatory pathway, which Ocugen definitely didn’t need right now.

The Bottom Line

It’s a shame that Ocugen couldn’t keep up in the race to develop a Covid-19 vaccine that would gain traction.

The competition is fierce in this area, and unfortunately, Ocugen isn’t in a strong financial position to outdo or outlast its peers.

Therefore, even if it’s trading at a strong support level, OCGN stock simply isn’t a buy right now.

On the date of publication, David Moadel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2021/12/ocgn-stock-investors-are-betting-on-a-horse-than-cant-win-the-race/.

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