LCID Stock Price Predictions: Why One Analyst Thinks Lucid Can Gain 80%

Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) reported earnings after the bell yesterday and the results were not pretty. Currently, LCID stock is down more than 15% today.

Someone is viewing a red Lucid Air car on a computer screen while holding a phone that says Lucid
Source: T. Schneider / Shutterstock

For the period, revenue came in at $26.4 million, which was below the analyst estimate of $36.74 million. However, the blaring statistic that can be to blame for Lucid’s decline is its production guidance. The electric vehicle (EV) company had previously set a full-year 2022 goal of 20,000 vehicles. Now, Lucid has lowered its production guidance to between 12,000 and 14,000 vehicles.

Here’s what LCID stock investors should know.

LCID Stock Price Predictions: Citi Still Bullish Despite Q4

According to Lucid, this decreased production guidance is due to “extraordinary supply chain and logistics challenges.” In addition, the supply chain and logistics challenges were surprisingly not related to the ongoing semiconductor shortage. Rather, CEO Peter Rawlinson blamed shortages on commodities like glass and carpet. These challenges may have also influenced Lucid to push back production of the Lucid Gravity, its electric SUV. The Gravity was initially expected to begin production by the end of 2023. Now, that start date has been delayed to the first half of 2024.

As of Feb. 28, Lucid has produced 400 vehicles and delivered 300 of them. The California-based company also confirmed that it plans on opening its first international assembly plant in Saudi Arabia. Rawlinson says the plant is expected to begin production in 2025, with an annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles.

After examining the Q4 report, Citi analyst Itay Michaeli lowered his price target from $57 to $45. However, $45 still represents a more than 80% appreciation from current prices. Michaeli stated that Lucid’s Q4 loss of $1 billion was better than anticipated. On the other hand, the 2022 production guidance was “well-below expectations.” The lowered guidance, paired with the delay of the Lucid Gravity, were major reasons why the analyst lowered his price target. Still, on the bright side, Michaeli believes that supply chain issues “should be largely confined to H1.” By the second half of 2022, the analyst forecasts that production levels should be consistent with a 20,000 annual production rate.

What’s Next for Lucid?

There’s no denying that Lucid reported a lackluster quarter. Production of vehicles has been slow as well and things could get worse for the EV company if the pace of production doesn’t accelerate. Lucid also has a massive backlog; the company reported that customer reservations now exceed 25,000, which reflects “potential sales of more than $2.4 billion.”

The new assembly plant in Saudi Arabia is certainly exciting news, too. Unfortunately, the expenses to build the factory may hurt profitability in the near term. In the long term, however, the factory is expected to “result in up to $3.4 billion of value to Lucid over 15 years.”

On the date of publication, Eddie Pan did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the Publishing Guidelines.

Eddie Pan specializes in institutional investments and insider activity. He writes for InvestorPlace’s Today’s Market team, which centers on the latest news involving popular stocks.

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