Economic News To Review

Almost every day a major government agency or private organization releases new information covering the status of some pocket of the economy. I’m here to help you sift through the barrage of economic data out there and determine what this will mean for your stocks.

Here is a look at last week’s economic reports and a quick analysis on what they mean for both the economy and for you as an investor.

Consumer Credit

What It Measures: This report is released by the Federal Reserve every month to measure consumer debt for the past month. Consumer credit is broken down into three categories: auto, revolving (credit card) and other debt (student loans, etc.). Periods of strong spending can be accompanied by relatively weak credit growth and vice versa.

The Breakdown: In March, consumer credit surged $21.5 billion—more than double the $9.8 billion forecast by economists. This is the largest jump in consumer credit since November 2001. The prior month, consumer credit rose $9.3 billion. The primary driver of March’s increase was a jump in non-revolving credit likes student debt and car loans; this measure jumped $16.17 billion.

The Bottom Line: The good news is that credit is flowing more freely and that consumers seem more willing to take on debt. This is an indirect sign of consumer confidence.

Wholesale Inventories

What It Measures: The Commerce Department releases its wholesale trade report every month, which includes sales and inventory statistics from the second stage of the manufacturing process. Although the sales figures don’t say much about personal consumption, wholesale inventories sometimes swing enough to affect the Gross Domestic Product outlook.

The Breakdown: On Wednesday, the Commerce Department announced that wholesale inventories climbed 0.3% in March; this fell below the 0.6% consensus estimate. In February, inventories climbed 0.9%. What’s interesting is that while inventories for durable goods increased 1%, non-durable goods inventories fell 0.6%—representing the largest decrease in half a year.

The Bottom Line: The analyst community isn’t overly concerned with this report, and neither am I. This could be a matter of wholesalers keeping inventories tight due to the economy or just a matter of managing cash.

Initial Claims for Unemployment

What It Measures: They are an indicator of the direction of the job market. Increases in jobless claims show slowing job growth; decreases in claims signal accelerating job growth. On a week-to-week basis, jobless claims are volatile, so one of the best ways to track this measure is to look at the four-week moving average. It usually takes a jump or decline of at least 30K claims to signal a meaningful change in job growth.

The Breakdown: Last week, initial claims for unemployment dipped 1,000 to 367,000. This represents the lowest level in four weeks. This came in slightly above the 365,000 consensus estimate. Last week’s data also brought the four-week moving average down by 5,250 to 379,000.

The Bottom Line: After last month’s surge in jobless claims, it is encouraging to see this moderate downward again.

Balance of Trade Report

What It Measures: The Commerce Department’s trade report is most widely watched for the latest overall trade balance.  By extension, the report measures export and import levels; exports demonstrate how competitive U.S. goods and services are as well as the strength of economies overseas. Imports indicate domestic demand. The volatility in the monthly trade balance, especially on the exports side, plays an important role in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts.

The Breakdown: On Thursday, the Commerce Department announced that the U.S. trade deficit rose 14.1% to $51.8 billion in March, which came in above economists’ forecasts.  In the past 12 months, exports have risen 7%, while imports have risen 8.4%.

The best part of the trade deficit report is that there were record exports to Canada, the European Union, Mexico and South Korea in March.  Unfortunately, that the value of crude oil imports rose to the highest level in 10 months and are clearly causing the trade deficit to soar.

The Bottom Line: This was probably the weakest economic report for the week; I expect that this will put downward pressure on economists’ first-quarter GDP estimates

Producer Price Index

What It Measures: This is the price of goods at the wholesale level for the past month, and a first sign of inflation.

The Breakdown: In April, the Producer Price Index unexpectedly dropped 0.2%. Economists expected the index to rise 0.1%. This was driven by the largest drop in energy costs in six months. Meanwhile, the core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, in line with the consensus.

The Bottom Line: It looks like inflation is cooling off at the wholesale level. This is good news for consumers living on fixed incomes as well as the Federal Reserve Bank.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2012/05/economic-news-you-can-use-3/.

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