Encouraging data earlier this month led to a bullish beginning for the markets in September. Thus far, the S&P 500 Index is up 8.8% — propelled higher on good global economic news. At the top of the stock market news is strong data from China’s manufacturing sector.
According to two recent surveys, Chinese manufacturing activity rose in August for the first time in four months. The two surveys showed production, new orders and purchasing prices all climbed higher in the month. Given the strength in the Chinese economy, I continue to expect China stocks to outperform in the coming rally with another 25% to 40% upside by year-end.
Overall, despite the inevitable volatility in the markets along the way, the unprecedented growth drivers in China will continue directing investors to where the real opportunity resides.
Here are my top five China stocks to buy as we enter October.
China Stock #1 – Baidu
Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) is unveiling a new feature that will likely keep users on its site longer. The company will launch third-party offerings in Baidu’s application library directly on Baidu.com rather than on another website, providing a potential revenue boost for the company. For example, if a user searches for a specific online game, the new function will produce a pop-up window containing the game which can be played immediately without the user leaving the Baidu site.
Earlier this month, Baidu tried to clear its consolidation period and break out of its current range, but couldn’t fight the overall undertow of the broad market and fell back to around its 10-week moving average. However, in the past few days the stock is again finding support and bouncing higher along with the market.
Baidu stock has jumped 119% since January and 125% over the past 12 months. This could offer a buying opportunity, especially as the broader market heads higher. My buy limit for BIDU is $80.
China Stock #2 – China Valves Technology
China Valves Technology (NASDAQ: CVVT) recently announced that its subsidiary, Able Delight Valve, has been certified as a qualified supplier of China Nuclear Power Engineering. This is CVVT’s second subsidiary to receive this certification.
This is a nice milestone for the company as CVVT continues to gain market share in the nuclear power industry. The demand for nuclear power applications is growing but the inspection of prospective suppliers is strict — and the company believes that the addition of Able Delight as a qualified supplier will become another catalyst for rapid growth in the near future. CVVT is a buy under $10.50.
China Stock #3 – China-Biotics
China-Biotics (NASDAQ: CHBT) is one of just a few Chinese food companies that have received four major international certifications — including HACCP, a U.S. FDA designation required for all food imports into the U.S. And CHBT’s probiotics have a survival rate of 70% at room temperature two years after manufacture — twice the requirement for probiotic products sold in Europe, it says.
Because of its superior fermentation technology, the company’s products also have a much higher active ingredient concentration than most domestic competitors. In fact, many of its domestic competitors use outdated technology to manufacture probiotics, which tend to be inferior and have a shorter shelf life.
CHBT reported 62% year-over-year revenue growth at the beginning of August, and though shares have consolidated recently it remains a good bargain buy. I’m targeting $18 a share right now.
China Stock #4 – Morgan Stanley A Shares
Morgan Stanley China A-Share Fund (NYSE: CAF) is actually a mutual fund and not a stock. But this is one of my top buys since it allows you to play the best parts of the China market right now. The fund invests 80% of assets in A-shares of Chinese companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Top holdings include Shanxi Xishan Coal and Electricity, Citic Securities and Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co., among others.
I expect the Shanghai stock market to be higher by year-end, and CAF is the only easy way that U.S. investors can gain exposure to this largely closed-off market. CAF is a buy under $28.
China Stock #5 – Sorl Auto Parts
Sorl Auto Parts (NASDAQ: SORL) has purchased the assets of the hydraulic brake, power steering, and automotive electrical operations of Ruili Group Auto Parts. As a result of this acquisition, Sorl’s product offerings will expand to both commercial and passenger vehicles’ brake systems and other key safety-related auto parts. The company expects it will allow the company to streamline its management organization, as well as create efficiencies in production, R&D and its sales network. In addition, Sorl’s management expects the acquisition will be beneficial to the company’s revenues and earnings.
Sorl paid 170 million yuan — or about $25 million — for the acquisition, and the company believes it will generate about $35 million in revenues and about $4 million in net income in 2011. In addition, Sorl expects the acquisition to generate incremental free cash flow in both 2010 and 2011. SORL has outperformed earnings estimates for four consecutive quarters, and its stock price rose 71.7% over the past 12 months.
Now, the chairman and CEO of Sorl Auto, Xiao Ping Zhang, is also the controlling shareholder of the Ruili Group. However, the price paid for the acquisition was based on a valuation of the purchased business performed by Asia’s leading appraisal company, DTZ Debenham Tie Leung — lessening the possibility of a conflict of interest with regards to the sale.
Overall, I think this was a good purchase by Sorl. The acquisition will allow the company to offer its customers more high-quality products to fulfill their needs from one source. In addition, because both companies share similar visions, I expect the combination of their internal resources will create favorable economies-of-scale that will strengthen earnings and create shareholder value. Buy SORL under $10.
As of this writing, Robert Hsu was recommending all five of these stocks in his China Strategy newsletter.
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