Dow Chemical (DOW): An Interesting Stock in this Environment

I recently wrote glowingly about Apple, Inc. (AAPL).  In the article I stated that AAPL was a stock to own in any portfolio irrespective of economic conditions.  The discount in AAPL during this crisis was a gift from God.

Are there any other must-have stocks to own at a time when we are facing unprecedented dislocations in credit markets and the economy in general?

If you have a long-term horizon, there really are some interesting stocks to buy in this market environment.  One sector that looks particularly attractive is the chemical space.

This group struggled of late with rising input costs and intense competition that made it difficult to raise prices.  When oil crossed the $100 per barrel mark, most chemical companies bit the bullet and increased prices across the board.

With the focus of the entire investing world on the credit crisis and its impact on the economy, few have contemplated the impact of lower oil prices.  In my mind, such a mistake is inefficiency in the market that ought to be exploited.

For chemical makers the huge drop in oil prices will greatly improve profit margins. Historically, companies are very reluctant to drop prices when input or raw material costs are falling.  For good reason, too, as you never know when inflation will return.

Deflation is such a rare occurrence that companies simply cannot count on lower material expense lasting for any reliable period.

So it was a good thing that the chemical companies did indeed increase prices with oil well over $100 per barrel.

On Thursday, Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) released its earnings report for the third quarter.  This giant in the industry announced that its profit in the period grew by 6%, specifically stating that price increases helped to offset higher raw material cost.

Excluding items, the company posted a profit of $0.60 per share beating analyst estimates by $0.03.  Shares gained nearly 10% on the news.

The company does expect the entire year of 2009 to be a recessionary period, and they are taking steps to reduce costs.  That being said, DOW will clearly benefit from significantly lower prices on raw materials.

Such savings are not currently reflected in the stock.  Despite the gains on the positive earnings report, DOW shares are still down some 50% from its peak high of $45.50 during the last 52 weeks.

With such a decline the company’s dividend yield is some 7%.  Although there is risk that the dividend will be cut, keep in mind that DOW has reliably paid a dividend for many years and they are out with comments defending the dividend today.

Indeed the economy is likely to be weak for some time, but DOW‘s share price has already reflected much of that risk.  Even if shares decline from here there is a stable dividend that will help investors generate a return while we wait for better times.

For me the big reason for owning the stock is the reduction in oil prices.  That alone is a reason to buy in my opinion.

This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insight like this, go to: www.InvestorPlace.com.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2008/10/dow-chemical-dow-interesting-stock/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC