The Trader’s Game Plan

I’ve learned many lessons over the last 20 years of my career that now serve me very well with respect to following the market.  One very basic lesson that many already know or have heard is that the trend is your friend.

By that I mean that once a trend begins moving in one direction, it usually continues in that direction.  Even better, the trend lasts for longer than many expect.  As a result, investors can take advantage by riding the wave as it goes.

The only trick is to know when to get off, but as I said you can reliably follow a trend longer than you might think.

Trends can be found anywhere.  It can be specific stock, an industry or an economy.  It can be a commodity, a trading methodology or investment style.  There is a reason successful investors say to let your winners win.

So what trend can we follow today to make super size profits?  There are several options to choose from.  All you need to do is to look at what is working now.

Front and center of what is working now is active trading.  There is no doubt that those trading the market are faring significantly better than those simply buying and holding stocks.

They got a bum rap in the late 1990s, but does anyone remember the day trader?  He/she may have disappeared for a number of years, but he/she is back and back in a big way.  In fact, about the only folks making money in 2008 are the traders. (See also: "A Trader’s Guide for the Rest of the Year.")

The right question then is will trading continue to work as we approach the end of the year and beyond?

That’s where remembering our keys to successful investing come in handy.  The wave of trading has only begun.  While nothing lasts forever the environment today appears to be quite conducive to this style of investing.

With volatility and fear at record levels we are seeing huge swings in stock prices.  Up until late last week we experienced a triple digit moves, mostly lower, on a daily basis. 

Traders can make big dollars on such big moves and many are. Are you making money trading this volatility?  If not, I would suggest giving it a try.

Now, I’m not talking about buying and selling stocks in rapidity.  Although that approach can work for some traders, even simple less frequent trades can make a big difference in your portfolio.

Think of it as boogie boarding instead of surfing.  Both involve riding wave, but one approach is a bit tamer for the feint of heart.

In this market, there are certainly big swings on a daily basis, but there are wider trading ranges over a longer period of time.  At the moment we are now solidly on the upside of an intermediate trend.

We have all the marking of a bear market rally.  Stocks had been incredibly oversold with record levels of fear in the market.  In addition the market was clearly expecting the worst with respect to the economy.

The worst may indeed happen, but it is not eminent.  That fact allows stocks to rally on enthusiasm for what will be.  Keep in mind without immediate danger traders determine prices based on a discounting of the future.

It is well known that the economy will be week for much of 2009.  That outcome was priced into the market in early October when stocks sold off heavily.  Rarely does the market hit the price exactly right and in this case they overshot the mark.

Doing so provided an entry point for boogie board traders like me.  I moved my Rational Investor model portfolio away from cash last Friday in anticipation of a November rally.  I don’t have a ton of conviction for the long term, but I do think I can take advantage of volatility in the short term.

That’s what the market is all about at the moment, and don,t let anyone tell you any differently.

Use the Dow as your guide.  At the moment, 9,000 is the floor and 10,000 is the ceiling.  I will feel less comfortable with a long position if the market should bust through the ceiling before the end of the year.

My biggest concern is that earnings are likely to be weak for one or two more quarters.  That weakness can reverse the current feel-good momentum of the market.  Below the 10,000 mark, I feel comfortable owning stocks.

I’ll let the election and the fallout thereof dictate my next move.  At some point, I may have to ride the next wave.

This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insight like this, go to: www.InvestorPlace.com.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2008/11/traders-game-plan/.

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