The Builders Are Coming, The Builders Are Coming

The market despises uncertainty.  Investors, for obvious reasons, prefer a sure thing and the best way to get a sure thing is to eliminate any unknowns.  Uncertainty about the future is the biggest reason markets are struggling at them moment.

It is that simple.

Although the market stumbled last week, investors should be comforted by the bits and pieces of news that are helping eliminate some of the uncertainty that now plagues investors.

In early November, we elected our next President and since that time the President-Elect has been moving cautiously forward in building his administration.  As names are put forward for key cabinet positions, the puzzle of the future becomes clearer.

The naming of Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary alone lifted the market by more than 6.5%.  Even better, this weekend we saw advisors for the President-Elect state that bold plans to eliminate debt and balance the budget in the form of tax increases for the wealthy may be off the table.

This is fabulous news for investors. One can debate the merits of the move in more normal conditions, but these are far from normal times.  All oars need to be pulling in the same direction to get us out of this mess.

That means the investor class or the higher net worth individuals in the country need not be singled out to pay more in taxes, or what have you.  Instead, we need investors and small businesses to use capital in a way that creates jobs and encourage investment.

An increase in capital gains taxes may have made sense in a growing, stable economy.  Not now.  Fortunately the new administration gets this concept.  That alone should support stocks going forward.

Interestingly, ideas for stabilizing the economy are coming from not just the new administration.  Professional experts and pundits are chiming in with suggestions to help us recover from the morass.

One interesting idea deals with the long-suffering real estate market.  The source of much of what now ails us, a strong real estate market will be essential to providing clarity in the future.

The solution, some say, is to underwrite mortgages at significantly lower interest rates than currently available in the market.  Using Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government could support the industry by offering loans at say 4%.

Doing so would increase the pool of qualified buyers helping to reduce record levels of inventory on the market.  A lower rate would help put home payments as percentage of monthly income at a more sustainable level.

It is a good idea that is getting only a moderate amount of coverage at the moment.  I do not know if the President-Elect will support such a solution, but he should.  Solving the problems in real estate will go a long way to building a foundation for the future.

If such a plan gains any traction, the homebuilding sector will benefit greatly. That long suffering market has been searching for a bottom for some time.  Stimulating buying with low interest loans would go a long way for a recovery.

There have been many false starts over the last year.  The bulls have wanted to call a bottom for so long, but with little real basis for doing so other than the stocks have fallen so far.

We all know that is not a good reason to call a bottom.  Stocks can and do fall further.  What is needed is solid evidence that homebuilders can operate profitably and do so without having to write down assets on their balance sheet.

Subsidized mortgages would do just that.  If Washington throws its weight behind such a plan, I think it is safe to say that a real bottom has been reached in the homebuilding sector.

Many stocks in the group now trade near or at record lows.  From a valuation standpoint the most expensive stocks trade for multiples of 60% of book value with many names trading for 20% of book value.

Historically, owning homebuilding stocks at these prices has proven to be very fruitful for investors.  That may explain why bottoms were called the last time these stocks traded at these prices.

The only difference this time around is that a massive rescue package is coming down the pike.  We do not know for certain, but if that stimulus package includes a plan to offer low interest mortgages the homebuilding sector will be enjoy a renaissance of sorts.

Some of the names to consider in the group include KB Home (KBH), Hovnanian (HOV), Lennar (LEN), Pulte Homes (PHM) and DR Horton (DHI) offer compelling value for investors.

It may finally be time to say the homebuilders are coming, the homebuilders are coming.

This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insight like this, visit www.InvestorPlace.com.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2008/11/time-to-buy-homebuilders/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC