Don’t Play Chicken With Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC)

There are many different ways to play the game of chicken. Some are innocent, some not so much.  For some, playing the game is some sort of way to identify strength.

In reality, those that play this game are really showing weakness.  I suppose safely played, the game can provide cheap thrills, but for investors I would suggest sticking to the sidelines.

Case in point is the recent announcement that Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation (PPC) is filing for protection under bankruptcy law.  We already knew that the company was heading for trouble, but common shares still traded for more than $1 per share.

For those that played chicken with PPC (pun intended), you lost.  You forgot to jump off the track before the train hit you.  You may not have lost your life here, but you most certainly lost your equity stake.

Shares of PPC are down were down nearly 50% on Monday to $0.62 per share.  That’s still not zero, but it may as well be.

Is there anything we can learn from this train wreck?

Yes, the lesson with PPC is that the chicken business is a mess.  Not only should you not play the game, but you should not invest in the industry. (See also: "The Safest Way to Navigate the Market Today.")

I recently wrote about Sanderson Farms (SAFM) from the perspective of bird flu. (See: "Sanderson Farms is No Chicken Little Stock.") What I failed to mention in that article is that…

>

…PPC had been struggling, and yet SAFM stock had held its value relatively well.

My mistake there was a huge shorting opportunity with SAFM.  From the time that article was published in mid-September to the middle of November, shares of SAFM lost more than one-third of their value.

Having recovered to a price above $30, some felt that SAFM was in the clear. Not so fast.  Monday’s news on PPC hit SAFM hard.  Shares were down some 13% on Monday alone to $27 and change.

That said, the low for SAFM is around $20 per share.  What is an investor to do?

Well, don’t play chicken.  There is a train wreck coming, and you still have time to abort.  While it is true that PPC’s problem may be a gain for SAFM, I’m not so sure that makes up for high feed prices and weak demand for product.

If defense is your game, SAFM may be an interesting play.  It is a food company after all, and food companies are supposed to do well during difficult economic times. Unfortunately, these are crazy times whereby the normal rules do not apply.

We have seen that on many occasions during this crisis.  Until normalcy returns, I would just stay away from SAFM.   As I said in September, a return of bird flu and all bets are off.

This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insight like this, visit www.InvestorPlace.com.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2008/12/dont-play-chicken-with-pilgrims-pride-ppc/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC