Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest maker of heavy equipment and engines in the world, reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2009 results this morning. Quarterly EPS equaled $0.36, including a $0.05 per share cost related to 25,000 job cuts for the year.
The company beat average EPS estimates of $0.28, but missed the quarterly revenue estimate of $8.11 billion by about $200 million. For the full year, revenue was down nearly $19 billion (37%) and earnings were down 75%. Caterpillar’s chairman and CEO described 2009 as “the worst our company has experienced since the Great Depression.”
Looking ahead, Caterpillar expects 2010 revenues to rise 10%-25% year-over-year and EPS to be $2.50 at the mid-point of its revenue range. That’s better than full-year 2009 EPS of $1.43, but still less than half 2008 EPS of $5.66.
The company is pinning its 2010 hopes on economic improvement in China and the rest of the developing world. Caterpillar also sees some recovery in North America, Europe and Japan, but the improvements are smaller and slower than in developing nations.
Revenue from the Asia/Pacific region was down 19% year-over-year in 2009, but that was Caterpillar’s best-performing region. Everywhere else was down 35%-45%.
Caterpillar’s focus on Asia, particularly China, is a strategy that is certain to occur to other companies involved in construction and mining. After all, China holds more than $2 trillion in foreign exchange credits, and they’ve shown that they are willing to spend it for strategic acquisitions such as oil and gas fields.
The issue for Caterpillar is to figure out how much the Chinese government expects to invest in mining and construction and then to capitalize on the Chinese plans. That will be a tough nut to crack because China’s economy grew faster than planned in 2009, and some economists think China’s GDP could grow by as much as 16% in 2010. The IMF expects China’s GDP to grow by 10% in 2010.
The Chinese government has indicated that it will try to keep the country’s growth at around 9%-10%, in an effort to keep the country’s economy from overheating. One area that is reasonably easy to control is construction, and slowing down construction should help keep the country’s GDP from growing too fast. The same is true of mining.
Caterpillar has other reasons to expect a better year ahead, but without significant growth in China the company’s forecast will be hard to meet. It seems that virtually every company is counting on China to grow its economy and to be in the market for whatever product that company makes and sells. This scenario can’t come true for everyone.
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