Leveraging Earnings Plays With Options

Advertisement

Leveraging earnings plays with options is a great trading strategy because earnings are more predictable than most of the market. If a company disappoints, the stock usually declines, while a surprise typically spurs a stock gain. And those moves often come regardless of what the market is doing.

You should also look at the charts for points of support and resistance to help decide the best earnings plays.

In addition, the sentiment background — assessed from analyst ratings, option activity and short interest — gives you a feel for what the market is expecting. After all, it isn’t what a company reports; it’s whether the report surprises or disappoints the market that’s key to the stock’s subsequent move.

And guess what’s right around the corner? That’s right, earnings season.

It kicks off “officially” with Alcoa’s (AA) report on April 7, although the real meat of the season starts the following week.

With this in mind, let’s look at some of the key earnings reports for next week and how these stocks are setting up in terms of their technical and sentiment backgrounds.

The following table present several companies reporting earnings next week. It includes their report date and what analysts currently expect for profit growth (compared to the same quarter a year ago). It also includes my favorite technical measure — the 50-day moving average — so you can see potential support or resistance.

Finally, I’ll give an idea of the overall sentiment toward the stock based on various indicators. Keep in mind that optimistic sentiment represents higher expectations and, thus, can create some vulnerability if those expectations aren’t met. Conversely, pessimism reflects lower expectations that often lead to upside earnings surprises.

Here’s the table for next week:

>

Let’s look at one of these stocks more in depth.

Bar Set High for Research In Motion

Research In Motion (RIMM) reports Thursday, April 2, and analysts are looking for solid year-over-year growth from the BlackBerry maker. I should note that the expected growth is reduced from what the company has produced during the past year.

On the chart, RIMM has had an interesting few months. After bottoming out at $35 in December, the stock went on a tear, gaining about 70% in just two months to peak at $60.

But the stock’s fall from grace was even more dramatic, as the shares gave up all of their gains in about a month. The $35 level once again proved to be a solid bottom, and the stock went on another run.

But now the shares are struggling to overcome the combined resistance of the $45 level and their 100-day moving average (red line in chart below). Note that the 50-day moving average (blue line) is also prepared to help out the 100-day should the equity turn higher.

Sentiment toward RIMM is squarely optimistic, which could cause problems. The put/call ratio is near an annual low, indicating more call than put volume. Analysts are lined up behind the shares, with 20 of 32 covering brokerages rating the stock a “buy.” And short interest is negligible.

The bottom line is that RIMM has to overcome some high expectations from analysts, options players and the shorts. That puts the pressure squarely on the company’s shoulders for both its earnings report and outlook for the quarter ahead.

And, like I said above, this can create some vulnerability in the stock if those expectations aren’t met, making it a potential candidate to short.


Jon Lewis is the co-editor of The Winning Edge trading service designed to help you make options profits around corporate earnings and other market events. For more information about Chris, read his bio here.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2009/03/leveraging-earnings-plays-with-options/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC