Is Rising Crude Oil a Sign of Recovery?

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Oil prices topped $90 a barrel early today, hitting their highest levels since just before the stock market and major economic indicators took a swoon in May. It was the third jump in crude oil prices in the last three days, with prices of the commodity up about $10 or 12% in the last month.

The impetus for the crude oil price jump was a report that showed U.S. supply dropped more than expected for a second week. That suggests crude oil and energy demand is improving, and presumably the economy with it.

Specifically, the American Petroleum Institute said late yesterday that crude oil inventories fell 5.8 million barrels. That was about double the drop predicted by energy industry insiders. Additionally, inventories of gasoline dropped 2.9 million barrels.

This is after a report last week from the Energy Department stating oil supplies dropped 9.9 million barrels, marking the biggest drop in eight years.

So is tying crude oil prices and related supply/demand data to an oversimplification? Maybe. Just because there is increased demand for energy doesn’t necessarily mean that folks are traveling more or that businesses are shipping more goods or that companies are running their manufacturing facilities longer. Crude oil prices are notoriously volatile due to a host of factors – including the weather.

And don’t forget that while an increase in oil prices could hint at higher demand, as oil approaches $100 we also approach a tipping point where expensive energy prices actually can choke off economic growth. Remember all the belt tightening Americans did amid $4 gasoline in early 2008?

In fact, Mark Whitehouse of The Wall Street Journal put together a great piece iun Sunday’s edition titled “Oil Prices Seen as a Threat Again.” It’s a great read, so check it out.

So the bottom line is that though it just so happens that today’s crude oil data was released amid GDP numbers that showed a slightly better-than-expected Q3 for the U.S. economy – 2.6% growth instead of 2.5% growth – let’s not get carried away. The only people really happy about rising oil prices are companies like Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and members of the OPEC cartel.

As for the people who are unhappy, look at your neighbors. In most of the U.S. gas prices have crept up over $3 – the highest levels since 2008. In a time of economic uncertainty, the last thing Americans need is a tighter budget and less free cash for discretionary spending.

Jeff Reeves is editor of InvestorPlace.com. As of this writing, he did not own a position in any of the stocks named here. Follow Jeff on Twitter at http://twitter.com/JeffReevesIP.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2010/12/crude-oil-prices-gas-price-economy-recovery/.

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