President Trump announces a trade deal with the U.K.… more from Louis Navellier on the FOMC meeting … more reasons to take advantage of low oil prices … bitcoin pierces $100K, and $120K is on the way

The first trade deal is here, and Wall Street likes it.

This morning, President Trump announced a “full and comprehensive” trade agreement with the U.K., announcing the news with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer dialing in from London.

Here are brief highlights:

• The U.S.’s new 10% tariff on U.K. goods will remain, though there will be some exemptions
• Tariffs on U.K. cars will fall to 10%
• The U.K. has committed to import more U.S. products, including agricultural goods and Boeing planes
• The U.S. will allow Rolls-Royce jet engines and parts to be imported without tariffs

Trump went on to say that the U.K. will reduce or eliminate nontariff barriers. They will also fast-track U.S. goods through customs, as the U.S. will do for U.K. goods.

From Trump:

The deal includes billions of dollars of increased market access for American exports, especially in agriculture, dramatically increasing access for American beef, ethanol and virtually all of the products produced by our great farmers.

From the U.K. perspective, Starmer sounded enthusiastic, saying:

This is going to boost trade between and across our countries, it’s going to not only protect jobs, but create jobs, opening market access.

According to Trump, the final details will be negotiated over the “coming weeks.”

Adding to the good news, the President indicated more deals are on the way. Before this morning’s press conference, Trump posted to Truth Social:

Many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!

And in his Oval Office remarks this morning, Trump said his administration is now negotiating with the European Union over trade issues.

Wall Street is cheering the news.

As I write Thursday early afternoon, all three major indexes are up more than 1%, with the Nasdaq leading the way, up almost 2%.

This is certainly welcome news. We’re looking forward to the details of additional deals to come.

More on yesterday’s Fed announcement

President Trump’s morning activity on Truth Social wasn’t limited to referencing trade deals. He also lambasted Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell following yesterday’s FOMC decision to hold interest rates steady.

From Trump:

‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue. Other than that, I like him very much!

Trump went on to add that there is “virtually NO INFLATION,” arguing that “almost all costs” are down.

I suspect that – though he wouldn’t word it quite the same way – legendary investor Louis Navellier feels somewhat similarly.

Here’s Louis’ hot take from yesterday’s Flash Update Podcast in Growth Investor:

The bottom line is I’m very perplexed and frustrated by [the decision from Powell and the Fed] …

The Fed should have signaled that yes, we have to cut to fight deflation. But they’re not. They’re imagining a mythical inflation bogeyman…

Again, I’m very frustrated. 

Yesterday, our Editor-in-Chief and fellow Digest writer, Luis Hernandez, sat down with Louis for a deeper dive into his thoughts on the Fed’s decision. They also discussed our current Q1 earnings season, as well as Warren Buffett.

You can watch the interview by clicking here or by clicking the link below.

One more reason to give top-tier oil stocks a look today

On Monday, the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude (the U.S. benchmark) fell below $56.00. From top-to-bottom, prices have fallen 28% in 2025.

They’ve been sliding due to fears of a global economic slowdown lowering demand, as well as oversupply from OPEC+ waging war on oil-producing countries that have been cheating on production.

But as the old saying goes, “the cure for low prices is…low prices.”

The simple logic holds that low prices cure themselves by 1) discouraging new supply from producers, and 2) encouraging demand from consumers.

Here’s CNBC from Tuesday on the first point:

U.S. onshore oil production has likely peaked and will start to decline due to the recent plunge in crude prices…the CEO of Diamondback Energy told shareholders in a letter this week.

Adjusted for inflation, there have only been two quarters since 2004 when front-month oil prices have been as cheap as they are now, excluding 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic swept the world, Diamondback CEO Travis Stice wrote.

“Therefore, we believe we are at a tipping point for U.S. oil production at current commodity prices,” Stice warned the company’s shareholders in a letter published Monday.

“It is likely that U.S. onshore oil production has peaked and will begin to decline this quarter.”

Stepping back, let’s remember how this cycle works…

The oil industry follows a boom-and-bust cycle driven by supply and demand dynamics.

When oil prices are high, producers ramp up output, leading to an oversupply. This oversupply eventually causes prices to fall, which forces higher-cost producers to cut back or shut down, reducing overall supply.

As supply tightens, prices rise again, attracting new investment and production – ultimately repeating the cycle and often resulting in another glut.

This self-reinforcing loop has played out repeatedly over decades in global energy markets.

Today, we’re in the oversupply phase. But we’ve known this, and we know what follows.

Let’s rewind to our 9/20/24 Digest. We’ll pick up quoting CNBC:

The oil market will face a supply shortage by the end of 2025 as the world fails to replace current crude reserves fast enough, Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub told CNBC on Monday.

About 97% of the oil produced today was discovered in the 20th century, she said. The world has replaced less than 50% of the crude produced over the last decade, Hollub added.

“We’re in a situation now where in a couple of years’ time we’re going to be very short on supply,” she told CNBC’s Tyler Mathisen…

For now, the market is oversupplied, which has held oil prices down…

But the supply and demand outlook will flip by the end of 2025, Hollub said.

With Diamondback’s CEO signaling we’re past peak U.S. production, it appears we’re on pace for the supply/demand balance to flip over the next year as expected.

Now, might oil and stock prices fall further from here?

Of course. If you invest today, be prepared for that.

But we believe the wiser question that longer-term investors should ask is “looking back in, say, 24-36 months from now, will hindsight prove that today’s prices were profitable entry-points in top-tier oil stocks?”

We believe the answer is a resounding “yes.”

Bottom line: If you want exposure to Big Oil, we’re in a buying window today.

Bitcoin is popping

Invigorated by today’s trade deal, “risk on” sentiment is gripping investors again, and bitcoin is jumping.

As I write, the granddaddy crypto is up 4.5% on the day, now trading above $101K for the first time since early February.

Readers of our crypto expert Luke Lango were expecting this move. Let’s rewind to Luke’s Crypto Investor Network update last Saturday:

If April was a month of uncertainty and volatility, May looks poised to be the launching pad for one of the biggest risk-on rallies in recent crypto history.

Seriously. We’re that bullish right now.

We are growing increasingly confident that the crypto market is setting up for a powerful surge higher into and throughout the summer.

Behind Luke’s forecast was one thing – data.

He pointed out that, since bottoming in early April, bitcoin had soared more than 25% in just 20 trading days (at the time of his update – it’s higher now).

This marked one of the largest 20-day rallies of bitcoin’s latest cycle. For context, the last three major 20-day rallies in Bitcoin from October 2023, February 2024, and November 2024, all marked the beginning of sustained, multi-week crypto rallies.

Back to Luke:

We think the stage is set for everything—Bitcoin and altcoins alike—to move much higher over the next few months.

Beyond his bullish technical analysis, Luke cited additional tailwinds including easing trade war tensions… the likelihood of interest rates cuts from the Fed over the coming months… global adoption of bitcoin… disappearing regulatory headwinds… and increasing sector inflows.

Here’s his bottom line:

Add it all up and what do you get? A classic crypto launchpad setup…

We think Bitcoin reclaims $100,000 in the next week or two.

[Luke is being proved correct today.]

We think it will break $120,000 shortly thereafter. And we wouldn’t be surprised to see $150,000 on BTC before the end of summer. Altcoins should follow, with the laggards of April becoming the leaders of June and July.

Stay sharp. Stay strategic. Stay bullish.

So, is the market entering a prolonged uptrend?

We won’t go that far yet. But there’s certainly increased enthusiasm that trade deals can be reached before the July 9 expiration of the reciprocal pause. And that’s big.

Last week, I featured the following quote from Warren Buffett:

 A great investment opportunity occurs when a marvelous business encounters a one-time, huge, but solvable problem

I then made the point that our tariff-related market/economic pain was self-induced, which meant it could be self-corrected. A “huge, but solvable problem,” one might say.

With a little creative license on Buffett’s quote, that gives us:

A great investment opportunity occurs when a marvelous stock market encounters a one-time, huge, but solvable trade war.

It appears we’ve taken the first step toward solving it.

We’ll keep you updated here in the Digest.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg