Hello, Reader.

Before I began my nearly 30-year career as a global macro investor, I was a kid in Southern California collecting precious numismatic coins, like the Walking Liberty Half Dollar.

This silver piece, minted from 1916 to 1947, features Lady Liberty turned towards a brilliant sun. She holds both laurel and oak branches, symbolizing civil and military glory. On the back of the coin, a bald eagle perches on a rocky crag, representing strength.

As a work of art, this Beaux-Arts half-dollar ranks atop the most beautiful American coins ever minted.  

While it’s sometimes comforting to invest in hard assets that gleam in the sunlight and clang when you drop them on a table, the precious metal market can be very difficult to analyze on a traditional basis. That’s because gold never opens franchises across the country and generate cash flow. It’s just a thing that sits there.

Silver is, too, to a great extent. (Although, industrial consumption of silver has been soaring for the last few years, mostly because of solar.)

Of course, all prognostication is a guess. But when it comes to the precious metals, it’s like a triple or quadruple guess because they are not productive assets.

From childhood to investor-hood, I’ve been a huge gold and silver fan. And both are seeing renewed upside this week.

So, in today’s Smart Money, I’d like to share my two cents – pun intended – on the state of the precious metals market.

Let’s dive in…

Precious Metals’ Renewed Upside

One thing I’ve learned about markets over the years is that the highest volatility that you see tends to be countertrend. If a market is punctuated by steep drops, that’s probably a market that’s in a bull market. In other words, it goes up slowly, and then you get a steep drop.

The converse is true: If you see a market trending lower, but then you get an abrupt, short-covering rally, that’s usually a countertrend move.

Applying that to the gold and silver market, we’ve had a market that’s been trending higher. And not just this year, but for two or three years. So, when you get rapid and wild one-, two-, or three-day selloffs – like we saw a few weeks ago – that’s generally a countertrend move in an ongoing bull market.

Gold is up more than 55% this year; and it remains on track for its best annual performance since 1979. And although it had a recent pullback from last month’s record high, the metal reached a near three-week high this week, trading above $4,100 per ounce.

Gold’s traditional safe-haven status contributed to its recent growth. While the House of Representatives is expected to vote on ending the government shutdown today, ongoing economic uncertainty remains.

I have long recommended gold and other precious metals as a hedge against uncertainty across my services. Two of my current gilded recommendations in Fry’s Investment Report are up over 200%. And those who followed my SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) recommendations in Leverage pocketed a whopping 220% gain in seven months.

Now, while I focus on long-term megatrends, like gold’s multiyear climb, my colleague Jonathan Rose zeroes in on the short-term “surge points” that occur inside those same trends.

Jonathan uses a unique trading strategy to pinpoint rapid gains. And featured in this strategy is something called an “expected move.”

In his Masters in Trading LIVE video yesterday, Jonathan looked at an “expected move” in GLD – the very company I recommended – and shared his own expectations for the gold market.

Let’s listen in…

Profiting from Surge Points

Here’s Jonathan…

The expected move is the potential movement for an asset across 30 days. It’s how far the market thinks a stock or index might move up or down.

Think of it like an “over/under” in a sports game. You might have the over/under, or the collective score of a football game, be 50. That’s the combined score. Over 50, you bet on the over.  Under 50, you bet on the under. It’s like a binary event.

When price nears the expected move, traders tend to take profits or reduce risk. If price breaks the past expected move, it signals something unexpected could potentially happen.

GLD is right by the expected move.

I think gold will continue following through to the upside and no longer pull back like it has been.

Back in the summer of 2020, Jonathan pinpointed the surge point of another precious metal. He noticed that the silver markets were “broken,” i.e., the price of gold was soaring, but silver was stagnant. That sent the gold-to-silver ratio to the highest level it had been in decades.

He correctly predicted that it was just a matter of time before this corrected and silver went on a big run. So, he told his members to place a trade to bet on a price surge in silver.

The chart below shows what happened next.

The price of the metal immediately took off.

To put it simply, Jonathan studies where Wall Street’s most significant money is positioning early.

And I recently joined him in a special Profit Surge Event earlier this week, where he explained how tracking real-time shifts in buying pressure can help you move in sync with the market’s true leaders.

But that’s not all. Jonathan also showed how applying a simple tweak can multiply the payoff by 500% or more.

If you missed it, don’t worry. You can still catch a replay here to see how Jonathan and I view our current market environment – and how you can sharpen your strategy for the final stretch of 2025.

Click here to watch the free replay of our special event.

Regards,

Eric Fry