Listen to the audio version of this article (generated by AI).
Liz Suder was living in an empty nest.
She wanted to downsize. So, in April 2025, she listed her four-bed, 3.5-bath home in Murphy, Texas, for $750,000. Six months and several price cuts later, it still hadn’t sold. So she pulled the listing, then tried again this February.
Finally, more than a year later, a buyer agreed to $650,000, after Suder threw in $9,000 toward repairs, according to the Associated Press.
Her experience isn’t unique.
In Oregon, 36-year-old Ethan Butner is having the opposite problem. His family is growing, and they need a bigger home.
He’d already accepted an offer on a new house near Portland. But first, he needs to sell his current home.
After more than two months on the market, Butner cut his asking price by $30,000. One offer fell through. He even replaced appliances and flooring in hopes of attracting a buyer.
But his family is still waiting to move, according to the AP.
Folks, these two families are at very different stages of life. But they’re facing the same problem: a housing market squeezed by high prices and high borrowing costs.
That’s why the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions matter, even when it leaves rates alone.
On Wednesday, the Fed voted to do just that. It was the outcome Wall Street expected, and frankly, so did I.
But the details are worth getting into – and that’s exactly what we’ll do in today’s Market 360. I also know investors are eager to hear what the Fed will do next. I’ll share my thoughts on that in a moment.
Then, I want to turn our attention to something that could have a much bigger impact on your portfolio over the long run. It has to do with a major shift in global energy trade – away from the Middle East and toward the American Gulf Coast.
I’ll explain why this could be a major long-term shift in the balance of power, and how I believe investors can position themselves to profit right now.
Why the Fed’s Split Decision Matters
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4% while giving itself more time to assess the economy.
The vote was 10-2, with Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a quarter-point increase. I expect the disagreement over what comes next is the story that will continue to play out for the remainder of the year.
In its policy statement, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) described economic activity as expanding at a “strong pace” while acknowledging that inflation remains elevated.
But in his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted that while “monetary medicine is starting to work,” he made it clear that the central bank isn’t ready to declare victory.
September’s inflation report helps explain the caution. Consumer prices rose 0.6% for the month and 3.7% from a year earlier, with gasoline accounting for more than half the monthly increase.
That means with inflation still well above the Fed’s 2% target, another rate hike remains on the table.
A hold doesn’t immediately make borrowing cheap again. Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, while credit-card rates respond more directly to the Fed through banks’ prime rates.
The bond market is showing some encouraging signs of easing, though. The 10-year yield fell from about 5.3% on October 5 to just above 5%. If yields continue to fall, it could ease some pressure on borrowers.
But the Fed still needs to bring inflation under control. In fact, today we learned that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE), rose 0.5% in September and 3.6% from a year ago.
Personally, I would not be surprised by another hike before year-end. CME Group’s FedWatch shows the market expects a 75% chance for another hike this year.
I suspect Warsh would prefer to avoid another hike if inflation gives him room. An agreement that eases the Iran conflict could help by taking pressure off energy prices.
But the bottom line is that the Fed is still walking a tightrope. It needs to bring inflation under control without putting too much pressure on the economy.
And while Wall Street waits to see what happens next, I want us focused on something we can actually measure: corporate earnings.
Why Energy Earnings Are Soaring
Earnings season is in full swing.
According to our friends at FactSet, the Information Technology (IT) sector is on track for 65.6% earnings growth in the third quarter, the second-highest rate of any sector.
Coming in first? Energy, which leads with a whopping 136% earnings growth, more than double IT. Those figures combine results already reported with estimates for companies still to report.
Higher oil prices explain part of energy’s surge. Prices were roughly 32% higher in the third quarter compared to a year earlier, boosting producers’ revenue. Strong refining profits are contributing, too.
Across the energy sector, profit margins have nearly doubled compared to a year ago. The S&P energy sector rallied 23% over the past six months, compared to a 7% rise for the broader market.
Folks, those are impressive numbers. And they’re a good reminder of why I always tell you to follow the earnings.
Of course, higher oil prices won’t last forever. If supply disruptions ease and crude prices fall, some of the industry’s recent earnings windfall could fade.
But that’s why I’m especially interested in another trend that’s developing in American energy. One that could create opportunities long after the current crisis has passed.
I’m talking about the growing number of customers around the world making long-term commitments to buy American oil and natural gas.
And those commitments are helping lay the groundwork for what I believe could be a historic expansion of America’s energy industry.
An Energy Opportunity Measured in Decades
While the Fed makes decisions one meeting at a time, some of America’s energy customers have been making commitments for the next 20 years.
According to the Energy Information Administration, roughly 95% of the U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes newly contracted in 2025 were covered by 20-year agreements.
Think about that. These companies aren’t buying a few shipments of natural gas to get through the next winter. They’re securing American energy supplies for the next two decades.
These deals began before the Iran conflict, which tells me something important. The demand for American energy isn’t simply a response to the latest crisis in the Middle East – although the conflict has made the need for reliable supplies even more urgent.
It’s part of a much larger trend.
And meeting that demand will require an enormous amount of infrastructure. More pipelines, processing facilities and export terminals to move American energy to customers around the world.
That’s where I see some of the most exciting investment opportunities.
I call it America’s $31.5 Trillion IPO. And I believe the newly-named Gulf of America is the centerpiece of this “IPO.”
I believe we’re witnessing a shift in global energy trade that could create opportunities for investors over the next 15 years.
And I’ve spent the past several months researching how to take advantage of it.
In my latest presentation, I explain what President Trump set in motion last year, why I believe the U.S. could unseat the Middle East as the balance of power shifts – and the companies you’ll want to own as this unfolds.
If I’m right about where global energy trade is heading, this is a shift you’ll want to get ahead of.
Sincerely,
Louis Navellier
Editor, Market 360
