Will Dubai Problems Hit Oil Supplies?

The announcement that Dubai World wanted to postpone payments on some $60 billion in loans has ignited worry that problems with sovereign wealth funds could push the global economy further into the doldrums. Dubai World is owned by the government of the city-state of Dubai, which has said that the company’s debts are not guaranteed by the government.

The central bank of the United Arab Emirates, of which Dubai is a member, has promised to extend additional financing to all banks in the UAE, including foreign banks. That pledge buoyed markets a bit, but the overall reaction to the requested postponement is far from positive.

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The UAE is the fourth-largest crude oil exporter in the world, with daily shipments estimated at about 2.7 million barrels/day. But Dubai’s share of that is less than 10% of the total. The largest amount of exported crude comes from Abu Dhabi, and there is little to no chance that the oil-rich emirate will allow Dubai to fail.

If Dubai is too big to fail, though, Abu Dhabi is sure to extract a substantial price for its largesse. Aside from simply reining in Dubai’s spending on palm-tree-shaped islands and indoor snow-skiing hills, Abu Dhabi, which generates more than 60% of its GDP from crude oil, may use Dubai’s weakness to its advantage.

Abu Dhabi wants to diversify its economy and attract foreign investment to build its own tourism, manufacturing and real estate sectors. With crude oil prices around $80/barrel, the emirate takes in enough cash to do this on its own, but having a serious stake in Dubai World might really give Abu Dhabi a jump start.

Abu Dhabi is probably just waiting to see if $60 billion is the full extent of the damage. Dubai gets just 6% of its GDP from oil and gas production, not enough to cause either the emirate or the rest of the world to worry much about the effect of Dubai World’s problem on the supply of crude oil.

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Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2009/11/dubai-world-crude-oil-supply/.

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