General Electric (GE) reported a drop of 19% in earnings for the fourth quarter of 2009, compared with the same period in 2008. Still, that beat analysts’ estimates by $0.02 per share.

Quarterly revenues fell by 10% compared with the fourth quarter of 2008 but also beat estimates — $41.44 billion versus estimated revenues of $40.02 billion. Investors must be pleased with the results because GE’s shares were up more than 3% in very early trading this morning.

In a stirring endorsement of the company’s prospects for 2010, Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt said that equaling 2009’s earnings was “quite achievable.”

So, the story from GE is that things won’t get better, but they won’t get worse either. Immelt’s caution must be directly related to the company’s uncertainty about its commercial real estate exposure.

For the fiscal year, GE profits in commercial lending dropped 45% from a year ago. Its real estate segment lost $1.5 billion compared with a profit of $1.1 billion a year ago, and the quarter-to-quarter comparison is even worse — a loss of $60 million in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared with a loss of $593 million in 2009.

Saying that you’re going to achieve comparability with those numbers is not terribly risky. Revenues have also fallen in every operating segment; another feat that should not be too hard to match in 2010.

Following an already established pattern, GE noted that the fourth quarter did offer some signs of stability, if not improvement, in its business. But customers did not buy many jet engines and locomotives in 2009, and the outlook for 2010 is not significantly better.

By setting the bar so low for 2010, GE is probably being realistic. The main portion of the hit to commercial real estate is expected this year, and although GE has made some effort to provide for that, there’s no reason to believe that it has pared its reported assets enough to avoid further writedowns.

The sale of its NBCU stake to Comcast (CMCSA) should net GE about $8 billion in cash later this year. The company already has $124.2 billion in cash, most of which is attributable to its financial services segment. GE added nearly $38 billion in cash in financial services in 2009, bringing the segment’s total to $116.3 billion.

GE has no offered no strategy other than to do no worse in 2010 than it did in 2009. Now all GE has to do is clear Immelt’s very low bar. Ironically, that may be harder for GE than it sounds.

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