3 Large-Cap Stocks Set to Break Out and Score

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The overall market might be something less than bullish right now, but we’re at least starting to see pockets of strength again. So can investors at least tiptoe back into a stock picker’s mind-set? The answer is yes, but we do need to ensure we’re working with only the best of the best trading setups, where the charts, fundamentals and sentiment are all ready to do their part. To that end, three large-cap stocks are indeed firing on all cylinders — or are very close to doing so.

American Express

Think consumers still have their purse strings closed tightly? Think again. Retail spending in the U.S. is approaching record levels seen in 2007, and consumer credit levels have grown each month for the past 10 months.

Credit card companies like Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS) and American Express (NYSE:AXP) are reaping the benefits of that trend, too. Discover not only has been profitable for five straight quarters (since Q1 of 2010), it has topped estimates in all five quarters and has sequentially grown its per-share income in all five quarters. In fact, were the prior four quarters an actual fiscal year, DFS would have posted its most profitable year ever. Point being, it’s difficult to see the industry’s woes in those numbers.

Discover Financial isn’t exactly the best trading opportunity right now, though. That honor belongs to American Express shares, which are far less stretched right now. DFS has rallied 55% over the past 12 months, while AXP has only rallied 23% and, more importantly, has just now started to test the breakout waters.

As the chart below will illustrate, American Express shares spent the better part of 2010 and a great deal of 2011 in a trading range between $37 and $50. We saw a breakout effort unfold in May of this year, but it was upended by August’s marketwide decimation. In the meantime, though, AXP shares have fought their way back above the key ceiling at $50 and apparently intend to stay there.

American Express AXP

But what about the underlying results to support the chart’s growth? Don’t worry — American Express has it covered. Like Discover, the past 12 months for American Express actually have been the most profitable 12-month stretch ever for the company; last quarter’s EPS of $1.07 also was a record-breaker.

It’s tough to doubt a company’s outlook when it has waltzed into record-breaking territory in an environment like this one, especially when its peers are enjoying similar success.

Target

This year has not been kind to Target (NYSE:TGT) shareholders. In fact, it’s been particularly unkind, driving the stock from $60 at the beginning of the year to a low of $45.28 by early August. An impressive string of rising earnings — coupled with the fact that TGT is as cheap as it has been since 2009, when earnings still were shrinking — just hasn’t impressed the market. Yet the bulls and bears have tipped their hand about where the tide will turn.

Target

On three separate occasions since May, Target shares have brushed the $51.50-ish area without actually getting over it. It’s not so much that there’s a ceiling there. What’s so interesting is how the buyers continue to test it. It’s almost as if they’re going fishing.

Now that the lower lows have become higher lows, anything above $52 should be more than enough to trigger this brewing breakout. The fact that it also would coincide with a move above the 200-day average line is just gravy. (The underlying value has been there the whole time.)

Abbott Laboratories

Finally, you might have to zoom out all way back to 2008 to see what’s going on with Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT), but once you do, it’s clear. ABT is getting deep into the tip of a wedge shape and will be forced out of it soon — one way or another. Given the gestation period of three years, the ensuing move is likely to be a pretty big and long-lived one. It’s not unlike a slingshot — the farther you pull it back, the more powerful the release is.

Abbott Laboratories

Great, but which direction? Most likely a bullish move is in the cards. While earnings growth has been less than stellar of late, it’s still a reliable long-term earner with a decent dividend and a very strong EPS forecast of $4.99 for 2012. It just needs a nudge to get traders convinced again after a multiyear stall.

Bottom Line

While timing the broad market as a whole really can be a recipe for poor results, on a stock-by-stock basis, picking the right entry spots can make a world of difference for the better. All three of these names have the right makings for a big mover, but only American Express so far is making good on the potential. Keep the other two handy, however, as both are close to their own major moves.

Along those same lines, “beating the crowd” to a trade sometimes means you’re the only one stepping in. Wait for the market to tip its hand by carrying these charts past their respective hurdles.

James Brumley does not own shares in any of the aforementioned stocks.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/09/large-cap-stocks-axp-tgt-abt/.

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