Take a Gamble That P&G Will Tumble

Sometimes the easiest-potential setups for an options trade are right in front of our eyes but we can’t always see them. The reason may be that we are not looking at the complete expanded picture, via longer-term charts.

Expanding a chart over years instead of months may reveal some obvious notable observations that were not evident before. A chart with a long, rich history is Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG). And if the past is any sort of prelude, this is a great candidate as a put option trade right now. Here’s why.

For virtually two years, PG has traded in a range from $60 to $66, with a couple of minor exceptions. Currently the stock is near the high end of the channel and has struggled to go higher and lower, for the most part. If there is any weakness in PG or the market, the stock might want to test the low end of its range.

With PG trading here at $64.45, you can buy the PG Jan 65 Puts for $1.79 or less.

The long put strategy is pretty straightforward. The trade profits when the stock falls and the put premium increases as the PG option moves farther and farther in-the-money (ITM). Maximum profit is almost unlimited only because PG can only fall to $0 (which is highly unlikely) and the maximum loss is $1.58 if PG finishes at or above $65 at January expiration.

It would nice to see PG get below this past week’s support level at about $64.30 to get confirmation that the stock may be on its way to breaking down. A conservative target is at a support level just below $63. Consider exiting the position if PG trades much above $65.50, which is the last pivot high.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/12/take-a-gamble-that-pg-will-tumble/.

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