OfficeMax Slump Looks Like a Good Options Bet

Advertisement

With lots to choose from on the earnings calendar, we like to look for the smaller names that tend to get overlooked.  One of those is OfficeMax (NSYE:OMX), which reports next Tuesday  before the open.

Analysts expect the office supplies retailer to break even for the quarter compared to a profit of 12 cents a share a year ago.  Last quarter, the company badly missed the consensus estimate, mustering just 13 cents compared to the expected 27 cents.

Performance after recent earnings reports has been dismal, with the stock dropping an average of 20% in the week following three of the past four reports (the lone exception being a 14% gain last October).

The stock has been one of 2011’s worst performers, as the shares have dropped around 60% this year.  Right now, the stock is encountering resistance from its declining 50-day moving average after a quick 16% rally over the past week.  The chart below shows how the 50-day has done a pretty solid job in keeping all rally attempts in check this year.

You’d think a stock that’s performed as poorly as OMX would be universally hated.  Not so — nine of 16 covering analysts rate the stock a buy, short interest is unimpressive, and the put/call ratio is in the middle of its annual range.  Looks like a lot of folks are waiting for OMX to turn it around.  That tells us plenty of selling pressure remains.

Office suppliers have been hammered badly while the economy struggles.  And we’re seeing no signs that the current sluggish environment is about to change.  Nor should OMX’s fortunes.  Look for more weakness following earnings.  Buy the Aug 7.50 put for 80 cents or less.

Have a great trading week.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/07/officemax-slump-looks-like-a-good-options-bet/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC