The earnings schedule is becoming slimmer and slimmer. Only a handful of recognizable companies are on next week’s schedule, one of which is Best Buy (NYSE:BBY). The electronics retailer reports next Tuesday before the bell, with analysts expecting earnings of 54 cents a share, a drop of 10% from a year ago. The whisper number is 58 cents, so expectations may be somewhat higher than one would think.

BBY has a spotty record compared to the analyst estimate, missing three times in the past eight quarters. Also spotty is the stock’s performance after earnings. One thing that’s been very consistent is that the shares generally move sharply after reporting. In fact, after the past four reports, the stock has moved an average of 11.7% in the subsequent week. Two of the moves have been higher and two lower.

The stock has been locked within a tight range between the $23.50 and $25.50 levels for the past month. The 20-day moving average is descending into this area and currently is offering up resistance.

Sentiment toward BBY is generally tilted toward the skeptical. Just nine of 25 analysts rate the shares a buy, and the short-interest ratio is right around 5. But this is hardly over-the-top pessimism, as one might expect from a stock that’s lost 28% so far this year.

When you look at Best Buy’s competitors, the big three of Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a scary sight. We frankly don’t see how BBY can compete effectively against a low-cost leader, a technology titan, and an online behemoth all at the same time. It’s hard to see how the company can carve out a niche for itself. It just announced that it will add third-part sellers to its online store, something Amazon has been doing for forever (or so it seems). That may be a good move — eventually. But for now, it seems way too late.

We’re just not seeing any compelling reason to get behind BBY. With a track record of moving sharply after earnings, we see downside as the most likely path next week. Buy the October 25 put for two bucks or less.

Have a great trading week.