In the same vein as goofy nonmarket market indicators like how the Super Bowl affects stocks, Bespoke Investment Group has sounded off about tonight’s BCS National Championship Game between Alabama and Notre Dame — namely, which team market watchers should be rooting for.
Bespoke, citing Dow Jones Industrial Average performance, says to root for Alabama (see the graphics below).
I say Bespoke is wrong. Or at least … half-wrong.
If you’re hoping for a rip-roaring 2013 (performance is based on the year after the representative season, thus this year’s champion is the 2012 champion), you should be rooting for the Crimson Tide to win.
But then you’ll want to hope the Associated Press goes against conventional logic (and its own current rankings) by declaring Ohio State — which, with an Alabama win, would be the only undefeated team in Division I-A — its national champion.
That’s because, at least as average returns go, Buckeye titles have led to market performances that beat the pants off those following championships by the Tide and Irish:
|Season||Also Claimed by||DJIA Performance
Following Year (%)
|1957||Auburn, Michigan State, Oklahoma||+33.9%|
|1970||Arizona State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Texas||+6.1%|
|Percent of time positive: 71.4%|
That’s right: Average 1.38% losses after Irish titles and 2% gains after ‘Bama titles, but whopping double-digit campaigns following championships for the ol’ Scarlet and Gray. Plus, the percentage of time positive is the same as Alabama.
Not that there’s even a cupcake’s chance in my house that it’ll happen, but this Buckeye grad and fan can keep dreaming.