Most Viewed: AMCX Stock
The cable network with the highest number of total viewers in 2013 was USA Network with 2.7 billion. It’s owned by NBCUniversal which in turn is owned by Comcast. In fact, the top nine cable networks are all owned by big players such as Time Warner (TWX), Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA), Disney, Hearst and Comcast. In the 10th spot is AMC Networks (AMCX), with 1.8 billion total viewers. It’s an attractive network with shows like Mad Men and The Walking Dead keeping viewers glued to their TVs.
Absent from the top 10 are any networks from Viacom (VIAB) whose best result is an 18th-place finish for Nick at Nite. I would think Sumner Redstone or whoever takes over the company would be eager to take AMCX private. And they probably are.
Unfortunately, the Dolan family controls 67% of the votes. Unless they suddenly decide to get out of this business, which is hard to imagine, it’s going to make a deal nearly impossible. That said, AMC is the independent network worth owning. Viacom would be wise to at least consider making an offer.
Most Likely: DISCA Stock
Somebody will buy Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI), given that HGTV and Food Network are both in the top 20. It looked momentarily like Discovery Communications (DISCA) might be the suitor, but the company backed out of talks this past week, preferring to focus on overseas expansion.
Of course, discussions would probably resume immediately if there was any future indication that the Scripps family, which controls 44% of the voting shares, is willing to sell. The two companies are just a natural fit.
However, Richard Greenfield, an analyst with BTIG Research, feels a Discovery-Scripps combination still might not have enough scale to play ball with Comcast. If that’s the case, it might make sense for Disney or Time Warner to swoop in and buy DISCA stock, leaving Scripps to merge with AMCX. Of course, should this all happen, Scripps/AMC would then be the next major target.
While I’d love to see a monster deal such as Disney/Discovery, the Discovery/Scripps tie-up seems to make the most sense. DISCA CEO David Zaslav won’t spend time thinking about what could have been, but if the Scripps family opens the door, he will surely be in before DIS stock or CMCSA stock get a chance to make an offer.
In my opinion, your best bet to make money on content consolidation is to buy both SNI and DISCA stock — and then wait.
As of this writing, Will Ashworth did not own a position in any of the aforementioned securities.