The stock market is going to crash, of that you can be sure.
The market will roll over on panic-fueled selling and it will feel as if there’s no bottom in sight. This is what stocks do. Bear markets follow bull markets like night follows day. From the panic of 1901 to the recent credit crisis, the U.S. stock market has crashed and gone into a prolonged funk on nine occasions. It will happen again.
Just not necessarily anytime soon.
But it feels like it will. After all, the longer a rally lasts, the more anxious investors get. With the S&P 500 up 177% since bottoming out five years ago, that anxiety is beginning to boil over.
However, feelings of impending doom are hardly a method for timing the market. As sure as you can be that stocks will tumble eventually, you can be just as sure that there’s no foolproof way for predicting when.
If anything, the current rally still has a long way to go. Indeed, there have been 13 major rallies in the last 113 years, lasting an average of about 1,900 days. The current rally is still only about 1,300 days old.
Of course, that hasn’t kept jittery investors from reading the tea leaves, shuddering at every piece of bearish data or bad omen they can find. From a slowdown in China to the Federal Reserve removing stimulus, there are a number of popular themes out there that bears use to predict an imminent market crash. And yet both individually and collectively, none of them are very convincing.
Here’s are the top five reasons bears are saying the market will crash — and why you needn’t worry about any of them: