News of the Home Depot (HD) data breach first surfaced Sept. 2 when Home Depot admitted it was investigating a report that suggested customer credit and debit data had been stolen. Since then, HD stock has dropped a couple dollars, but that’s about it.

Given what happened to Target (TGT), which suffered double-digit declines in the months after its data breach, the consensus seems to be there will be some fallout to HD stock from the Home Depot data breach.

Problem is, in Target’s case, other extenuating circumstances such as its poor results in Canada had just as much to do with its stock’s malaise.

So … what exactly should we expect out of HD stock? Let’s look at a few possible scenarios:

The Worst-Case Scenario for HD Stock

If you haven’t noticed, the ambulance chasers are already out stirring up interest in a class-action lawsuit against the company. A Harwood Feffer LLP press release states (editing out legalese):

“Harwood Feffer LLP is investigating potential claims against the board of directors of the Home Depot, Inc. concerning a massive breach into customer data … Our investigation concerns, among other things, whether the Home Depot board of directors fulfilled its fiduciary duties in adequately protecting its customers’ private financial information from theft.”

Many other law firms sent out similarly worded press releases, but essentially, they want HD stock holders to line up at their offices to demand their rights as shareholders. One of those shareholders will then file suit on behalf of the entire class.

In a worst-case scenario, Home Depot’s investigation into what actually happened here will find the board was truly negligent in its actions, opening up the company and every member of the board to civil action.

But to successfully sue, a lawyer on behalf of his client(s) will have to prove that the board put its own individual interests ahead of those of the corporation, and that’s an awfully difficult thing to prove.

A more realistic worst-case scenario is financial fraud. Billguard, an online app that tracks your authorized and unauthorized spending, believes the 60 million accounts affected by the Home Depot data breach will cause $2 billion to $3 billion in fraud based on 10% to 15% of those accounts being compromised with the average fraud $332 per account.

In an effort to stem the negative publicity from this attack, Home Depot is offering free identity protection services, including credit monitoring for one year to anyone using a credit or debit card at one of its stores from April forward. While this is standard PR 101 stuff, the AllClear ID services do work and should help calm the anger and frustration felt by customers.

But, this is the worst-case scenario — so, if enough Home Depot customers get pissed off about this data breach, it’s possible revenues could drop as customers balk at shopping there. If that happens, you’ll definitely see a downward spiral from HD stock in the months and years ahead.

Best-Case Scenario for HD Stock

Anne D’Innocenzio of the Associated Press makes four arguments why shoppers will shrug off the Home Depot data breach. The most compelling (in my opinion) is its customer base.

Approximately 37% of Home Depot’s sales are from commercial customers. Sure, they might not be happy about what’s happened, but there’s little chance they’re going to up and find a new supplier. It’s not as if Lowe’s (LOW) has any better security.

Why upend the entire business to potentially get more of the same?

In fact, the rational customers will come to the realization that the Home Depot data breach will only serve to make HD more vigilant about cybersecurity. Do you really think Target’s ever going to underspend on IT after what it’s been through? No way. And neither will Home Depot.

I have to agree with Ms. D’Innocenzio. I don’t see Home Depot customers taking their business elsewhere. In fact, if you’re a Lowe’s customer, you just might even consider moving your business over to HD, because your data might be even safer given the money Home Depot will spend on IT security.

You never know. Best-case scenario, HD stock actually gets a bump from its data breach.

The Likeliest Scenario

The Target data breach first came to light on Dec. 18, 2013. At that point, 40 million accounts were affected. Then on Jan. 10, 2014, it jumped to 110 million, making it the biggest data breach in history. TGT stock closed trading Dec. 18 at $62.05 and $61.14 on Jan. 10. It barely budged.

Sure, Target shares made their way down to $55.30 by the end of January, but they have since gained all of that back. And importantly, during that time, Target was facing issues with both its domestic business and its botched foray into Canada. It ended up having to fire and hire a CEO … and yet its stock basically is back to flat since the news first hit last December.

Now compare Target’s business to Home Depot.

HD has no such problems. Its Q2 report was a thing of beauty, with online sales growing 38% year-over-year with same-store sales up 5.8% overall and 6.4% in the U.S. Business is so good that Home Depot upped its 2014 guidance and now expects diluted EPS of $4.52.

As long as Home Depot continue to stay in front of this story I don’t see a lot of fallout from the data breach. Consumers seem to have accepted that these things happen in a tech-savvy society. HD stock is up 12.4% in the last three months while barely down as a result of the breach.

Most likely, we’re all going to forget about this data breach in two or three months. Business at HD will continue pretty much as normal and HD stock will continue to move higher as earnings reports come and go.

This is a ship passing in the night … and it’s not the Titanic.

As of this writing, Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.