In a recent Wall Street Journal article, Ford (F) CEO Mark Fields suggested emerging markets represent a $1 trillion opportunity over the next six years. Almost 55% of the automotive industry’s growth will come from places like Brazil, Russia, China and India.

Given the overseas potential combined with tremendous profits at home, you’d think both Ford and General Motors (GM) would be licking their chops … but in the last week, investors have knocked F stock and GM stock for declines of 11% each.

Investors are skeptical that either company can keep North American profits humming long enough to benefit from what’s happening offshore. With both trading 20% or more below their five-year highs, it certainly appears as though the current troubles each is facing could be standing in the way of either stock achieving any meaningful gains.

Let’s dig deeper into the companies to see which of these stocks (if either) is worth buying.

GM Stock — Pros

CEO Mary Barra has a strategic plan which she revealed Wednesday to investors. The specifics of the plan include introducing more new products, keeping cars refreshed, using innovative technology, growing Cadillac and China, expanding GM Financial, improving supplier relationships, achieving better margins … the list goes on.

Clearly, this is the plan investors were supposed to have seen long ago but then more important issues came along in the form of a recall that has cost GM $2.5 billion pre-tax in the first six months of 2014 — putting any chance to move forward on the back burner. Wednesday’s full-day conference suggests the company is ready to move ahead with issues related to growth rather than ineptitude.

It’s still too early to tell what this means for GM stock, but you have to give Barra credit for trying to get beyond this PR nightmare.

GM’s biggest and strongest segment is General Motors North America (GMNA). In Q2, revenues grew 9.3% year-over-year to $25.7 billion, representing 65% of the company’s overall revenue. GMNA sold 830,000 vehicles in North America in the second quarter, 2.6% higher than in the same quarter a year earlier. Despite the recall being a North American problem, there’s very little wrong with its business on this side of the pond.

Outside of North America, there’s no place hotter than China where its joint-ventures sold 1.7 million cars in Q2 — a year-over-year bump of almost 11%.

In Barra’s address Wednesday, she announced that its joint ventures would invest $14 billion over the next five years to open five manufacturing plants capable of supporting the production of five million vehicles annually. This is the number that should have investors interested in GM stock.

GM Stock — Cons

There’s no question the recall is the biggest perceived negative affecting GM stock at the moment. Not so much because of the $2.5 billion necessary to fix the mechanical problems involved but rather the unknown quantity of financial compensation resulting from the various lawsuits. The company has set aside $400 million for this compensation plus an additional $200 million just in case. It’s possible this number could go much higher as claimants come out of the woodwork.

Investors don’t like uncertainty, and that’s definitely holding back GM stock. But I don’t think the recall is its biggest problem. Sure, there’s a perception by some that GM’s quality can’t be trusted, but any of the new cars in the last two years seem well-built able to stand up to its domestic and foreign peers.

No, for me, Europe is the bugaboo.

Barra indicates Europe will make money by 2016. According to its Q2 10Q, it lost $589 million adjusted EBIT in the first six months of 2014 and $3.8 billion over the past three fiscal years. While a significant portion of the 2012 losses were related to impairment charges, it’s still disconcerting when you consider the European business accounts for 13% of overall revenue (almost identical to its international operations which includes China), yet it can’t hold a candle to those other countries in terms of revenue.

At the end of the day if Barra doesn’t turn a profit in Europe (and South America for that matter) sooner rather than later, you can forget about GM stock making big gains over the long haul.

F Stock — Pros

Ford announced October 1 that it was adding 1,000 jobs (about a 15% bump in total employment) at its Oakville, Ontario, plant. The new jobs are to support the global platform for its 2015 Ford Edge crossover utility vehicle, which will be sold in more than 100 countries. Any time large numbers of jobs are created, it’s a sign business is confident in the future. With the Edge getting a little long in the tooth, the news couldn’t have come at a better time.

Barron’s ran a piece October 1 quoting JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman’s positive thoughts on Ford. While it’s easy to get negative considering Ford has some of the exact same problems as GM, Brinkman reminds us that Ford has a lot going for it, including first-rate products like the F-150 and Mustang, lots of money to invest in new products as well as rewarding shareholders, and an exceptionally deep talent pool to lean on in order to keep growing its business on a global basis.

If you invest based on quality of management, F stock appears to be dirt-cheap.

At the end of the day, like GM, Ford’s North American business is what keeps the wolves from the door. In the second quarter, if you add back $481 million for special items for separation-related issues, its North American business generated 92% of Ford’s overall operating profit. Certainly, these numbers speak volumes about why Ford’s adding to its Canadian workforce.

Ford expects pre-tax 2014 earnings of at least $6 billion and perhaps as high as $7 billion. With the exception of 2011 when margins were much better, Ford hasn’t experienced this type of profitability since the mid-2000s. If Mark Fields can fix some of the question marks such as Europe while boosting its investments in China and other parts of Asia, I see good things ahead for F stock.

F Stock — Cons

Ford has its own share of recalls, and Europe will continue to lose money in 2015

Sound familiar? You can blame Russia for that. Ford took a $321 million impairment charge in Q2 on its Russian joint venture, Ford Sollers. In its Q2 release, Ford stated, “Although the current environment in Russia is difficult, Russia remains a large and important market.” Given all that’s happening over there at the moment, this doesn’t seem like the surest bet.

Also of concern is its South American business, which lost $805 million in the first half of 2014; Ford expects the division to break even or lose money after all four quarters are in the books, with slower business the culprit due to inflation and wildly gyrating currencies. For the long-term, Ford feels confident that its South American business can deliver profits. Unfortunately, I doubt it can do so on a consistent basis.

Beyond that, things are looking good for F stock.

Which is the Better Buy?

Ford and GM’s businesses are so similar today that it’s hard to pick between them. Obviously GM’s recall issues are far more severe than Ford’s and will definitely continue to act as a major headwind for GM stock. That said, I see GM’s opportunities in China to be overwhelmingly positive while its South American business appears in better shape than Ford’s.

It’s a bit of a coin toss, but I believe GM stock is the better buy — just not by much.

As of this writing, Will Ashworth did not own a position in any of the aforementioned securities.