Getting to The Bottom of the Latest Economic Headlines

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Almost every day a major government agency or private organization releases new information covering the status of some pocket of the economy. I’m here to help you sift through the barrage of economic data out there and determine what this will mean for your stocks.

Wholesale Inventories

What It Measures: The Commerce Department releases its wholesale trade report every month, which includes sales and inventory statistics from the second stage of the manufacturing process. Although the sales figures don’t say much about personal consumption, wholesale inventories sometimes swing enough to affect the Gross Domestic Product outlook.

The Breakdown: U.S. wholesale inventories increased 0.3% in September, following a 0.6% gain in August. Economists were only expecting a 0.2% increase. At September’s sales pace, it would take 1.19 months to clear shelves, which is the same pace as August.

The Bottom Line: This was a modest gain in wholesale inventories in September, which shows that businesses are still restocking their shelves, just at a more cautious pace.

Initial Claims for Unemployment

What It Measures: It is an indicator of the direction of the job market. Increases in jobless claims show slowing job growth; decreases in claims signal accelerating job growth. On a week-to-week basis, jobless claims are volatile, so one of the best ways to track this measure is to look at the four-week moving average. It usually takes a jump or decline of at least 30,000 claims to signal a meaningful change in job growth.

The Breakdown: For the week ending Nov. 8, jobless claims increased more than expected. Jobless claims climbed 12,000 last week to 290,000, higher than economists’ expectations for 280,000. The four-week moving average of jobless claims increase to 285,000.

The Bottom Line: While it’s a little disappointing to see jobless claims increase last week, the number of new claims still remains below the 300,000 threshold—and they’ve been below that level for nine-straight weeks. In addition, jobless claims remain near a 14-year low.

Retail Sales

What It Measures: Through this report, the Commerce Department announces total receipts of retail stores for the past month. Retail sales do not include spending on services, which makes up over half of total consumption. The report also covers retail sales ex-autos, removing the most volatile consumer purchases. The changes in retail sales are followed closely and are a good indicator of broad consumer spending patterns.

The Breakdown: In October, U.S. retail sales increased 0.5%, when you strip our gasoline, autos, food and building materials. Analysts were expecting a 0.4% increase. Retail sales for September remained unchanged.

The Bottom Line: This was the biggest increase in retail sales since August, and is a good sign that the U.S. consumer is spending once again as we head into the holiday shopping season.

Business Inventories

What It Measures: The Commerce Department’s business inventories report includes sales and inventory statistics from all three stages of the manufacturing process (manufacturing, wholesale and retail). The retail inventory number is an important part of this report as it can move the market. The report also can affect the Gross Domestic Product outlook.

The Breakdown: Business inventories increased 0.3% to $1.76 trillion in September, up from 0.1% in August (which was revised down from 0.2%). This was in-line with analysts’ expectations. Sales were flat in September, which means the sales pace remained unchanged at 1.30 months.

The Bottom Line: This is another positive sign for the U.S. economy. With businesses boosting their inventory levels, we should continue to see U.S. GDP growth improve.

Louis Navellier is a renowned growth investor. He is the editor of five investing newsletters: Blue Chip GrowthEmerging GrowthUltimate GrowthFamily Trust and Platinum Growth. His most popular service, Blue Chip Growth, has a track record of beating the market 3:1 over the last 14 years. He uses a combination of quantitative and fundamental analysis to identify market-beating stocks. Mr. Navellier has made his proven formula accessible to investors via his free, online stock rating tool, PortfolioGrader.com. Louis Navellier may hold some of the aforementioned securities in one or more of his newsletters.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2014/11/getting-to-the-bottom-of-the-latest-economic-headlines/.

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