Humana: Prognosis for Healthy Growth

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Whether you think it’s enlightened social policy or rampant socialism, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act — dubbed “Obamacare” — is destined to expand coverage to roughly 32 million Americans, boosting the medical sector in general and well-positioned health insurance companies in particular.

Humana NYSE:HUMOne salient health player is Humana (HUM), which offers an integrated range of of health insurance programs, including services covered by Medicare and Medicaid. The company boasts 12 million members enrolled in benefit plans and 7.8 million members in specialty products.

The results of the Nov. 4 midterm elections expanded the GOP’s presence in the U.S. House and gave it control of the Senate for the first time in eight years. Many of the firebrands within the party vow to repeal Obamacare, but with 7.3 million Americans already enrolled through the program, the smart money on Wall Street is betting that attempts on Capitol Hill to defund or repeal the president’s signature domestic achievement are quixotic.

Regardless of party allegiance, dispassionate investors who are disciplined enough to put aside personal politics can make big profits from Obamacare’s continued implementation.

And that’s a major reason Humana looks good right now. The company is enjoying surging growth in individual customers who purchased Obamacare coverage on health exchanges and new enrollees from the law’s expansion of the Medicaid insurance program for the poor.

Humana was founded in 1961, at the dawn of the transformation of American health care when cost containment and managed care started to take hold. The company has been in the forefront of integrating health care plans into broad wellness programs that hold down costs and strive for efficiencies. The result is that Humana is better positioned than many rivals such as UnitedHealth Group (UNH) to leverage the long-term explosion of health coverage to come.

Temporary Earnings Dip

To be sure, Humana posted lackluster third quarter 2014 operating results last Friday , but largely as a result of investments that will put the company in the pink in future quarters. Third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.85, below EPS of $2.31 in the same quarter a year ago and also falling short of Wall Street’s expectations of $2.01.

However, in an auspicious sign for the future, third quarter revenue came in at $12.2 billion, for a robust year-over-year jump of 18.6%.

The earnings dip stemmed from Humana’s greater upfront investments in new contracts under Obamacare, as well as new state-administered Medicaid contracts. Greater enrollment will eventually buoy earnings and should more than compensate for any unforeseen bumps in the road in 2015.

Moreover, Humana is the only publicly traded health insurer to win a coveted five-star rating for its Medicare plans under Obamacare’s new five-star ranking for insurers with Medicare contracts. In particular, Humana expects higher enrollment next year in its Medicare Advantage plans, on the basis of the five-star status.

The Bottom Line

Humana is poised to exploit Obamacare’s expansion of coverage, as well as demographic trends that fuel the need for medical care. The company’s integrated and cost-efficient cost structure is another plus.

Although Humana is by definition a cyclical health stock that tends to benefit from overall recovery, it’s also less sensitive to swings in the economy, providing downside protection as the markets nervously gird for more political gridlock in Washington, D.C. and continued tensions in the Middle East.

The products and services of Humana will enjoy greater coverage under Obamacare, providing a multiyear boost to the company’s revenue and earnings, especially as economic recovery gains traction.

As of this writing, John Persinos did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2014/11/humana-prognosis-healthy-growth/.

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